PBF PBF Energy Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Refiners stocks continue to show relative strenth - $PBF $VLO. Yesterday I paid $7.40 per gallon in San Diego.

$PBF I expect very strong refinery profits for a while. I don’t expect the government’s heavy hand to do too much.

$PBF saw some notable OTM calls bought today - $1.3M+ order for the $80 calls (10/16) - $1.1M+ order for the $77.5 calls (10/16)

$PBF it is interesting to me that last quarter the California's Teacher Retirement System bought almost 5M shares (99% increase).

$PBF this mini sell off is a gift. Market conditions never better for PBF. Going to be a great 2H as shorts are trying to be hero’s and call the top.

$PBF There's another reason I like this transaction: PBF is refinancing expensive debt with 0% debt. The company plans to use the proceeds, after the capped-call cost, together with cash to redeem its 7.875% notes due 2030. Net proceeds are expected to be about $485 million before the $25.2 million capped-call expenditure. That's potentially a significant reduction in annual interest expense. Every $500 million of 7.875% debt costs about $39.4 million annually in interest. Replacing expensive debt with 0% exchangeable debt is financially attractive, although we'd need the exact amount of the 2030 notes being redeemed to calculate the actual savings. Yesterday investors saw "$500M exchangeable offering" and worried about dilution. Today they have the actual terms: 0% coupon + $96.80 exchange price + $123.20 capped call + proceeds retiring 7.875% debt. That's a much more shareholder-friendly package than simply issuing $500 million of stock around $70.

$PBF I think it is digesting the recent financing done at slightly higher prices and that the market is supporting the equity at 70 so I think institutions are stepping in there. I am going to accumulate against it as long as it holds and anticipate continuing spiking prices into winter. Further UN week is a probable break in some hostilities and bad for petroleum in that term but also likely to revert next week.

$PBF Who doesn't love maths. Ironic if it goes +75% by then: 3. How often do capped calls actually prevent dilution? Across the market: In ~60–70% of convertible deals, the stock never reaches the cap. In ~40–50%, the stock never even reaches the conversion price. Only ~20–30% of deals end up with meaningful dilution above the cap. For refiners specifically, the probability is even lower because: earnings are cyclical margins revert stocks rarely sustain multi‑year +75% moves So historically, capped calls do their job most of the time.

$PBF oil price will go down because of availability but refining margins stay high because after a little demand destruction it'll hit a sweet spot where the spread stays higher than historically. so much news about this lol i love this ticker

$PBF I have it on good authority that the party's over for PBF right now. It has peaked. I got out with losses and have to lose the last bit tomorrow. It sucks, but I still came out ahead. It was a great run. Best I've ever traded.

$PBF so much refining will be needed soon thanks to the clowns running the country. This is the golden opportunity for PBF, should hit many more all time highs