BCRX Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$BCRX The market has absorbed the fact that the elusive billion-dollar mark is likely out of reach (underestimating the potential of the pediatric indication); meanwhile, what do the numbers say? Projections are based on market growth and Orla’s global market share (to be conservative, I kept the share achieved in the last six months constant). My previous post shows the global market breakdown; the figures cited for Orladeyo refer to the global market (not just the US), but by subtracting the known regional figures, it is easy to determine the US share ($705–715 million in 2027, excluding the pediatric indication). Q3 will be crucial for gauging the initial momentum of the pediatric launch.

$BCRX Wait...so that drop to $8 was just a rug pull to steal people's money and Orla is not going to crash and burn after all?

$BCRX Rather than worrying about competitor drugs, think about the impact once Navenibart is approved. 1. ~90%+ attack reduction 2. Strong Q6M efficacy 3. Clean safety/tolerability 4. Low injection-site reactions 5. Good patient preference/adherence 6. Ability to compete against Takhzyro and newer HAE prophylaxis products. navenibart itself could become a $1B+ peak annual product globally.

$BCRX I would only take a BO at around $30 a share. Otherwise , I’m waiting. Company also expects $2.0 billon in sales by 2030. My goal is to pivot in life at 2032. This will help me achieve my goal. Let’s go!!!

$BCRX Good news when Charlie was asked about the PHVS data today and how it possibly changes the sales outlook for Orladeyo. He answered with “we actually had them reporting better efficacy in our model projections”. So really a nothing burger for Charlie and team.

$BCRX After 20% haircut on top of being well undervalued, time for the buyback they have been hinting about. Let’s say 200m 😎

$BCRX blocked that idiot fergus. 2 years overdue. nobody has ever contributed less per word on any topic, anywhere, ever.

$BCRX the sell off should be over. You guys should have a clear run now. Price should move high and pretty quickly

$BCRX i believe navenibart is going to be great and with orladeyo hits $1.8 billion in sales

$BCRX PHVS has “me too” long term efficacy and is starting years behind us and having to build their footprint from scratch. That’s all IF no more of their patients have another substantial increase in liver enzymes (which we’ll find out in a month). Their great success right now is in their immediate release treatment which we are not competing with. This is a buying opportunity, not a time to worry.

$BCRX The most exciting thing that’s happened to this stock in the last year was a bullshit buyout rumor. Atrocious.

$BCRX BCRX needs to take a page from Nvidia's playbook. Nvidia announces jaw-dropping $150 billion stock buyback, largest single authorization in history. "Our cash generation gives us the capacity to return capital to shareholders. This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead."

$BCRX at this point they could announce Orladeyo cures baldness, prints money, and comes with free electricity and the stock would probably open down 8%. Unserious price action for weeks.

$BCRX I know. You are annoyed with my surface level analysis and constant btd mudhaphuckin posts blah blah. So let me give you some long timers some hope. I have suffered on another ticker band for 3-4 years as it oscillated from $13-$20 for that same period and felt like the biggest opportunity cost in the world. Last October I wrote an article , my last on the topic when it was trading below $15. After all the he’ll and torture I still was able to put this together because I learned how to handle manipulation and market mispricing.

$BCRX Remember when Stonehouse was so cocky about 9930 that he pulled the offering? The stock dropped from $17 to $15 in after hours when the offering was announced and he was insulted. Pulling that offering has been the kiss of death since that day about 5 years ago. He really pissed the big money institutions off! Charlie can right the ship, but only if he goes on the offensive by announcing a stock buyback plan, making it a point to put shareholders first, and of course having a successful Navenibart readout. Those are the things that will determine whether this gets back to ATH someday or is cut in half from here. It’s truly a gamble for us guys!!!

$BCRX added 4300 shares this week. Some $10 put assignments at 9.05 cost basis, and buys at $8.25. Nearly got all my shares back that I sold at 10.56. I thought I was getting out! But looks like I’m getting sucked back in.

$BCRX Charlie said “kid demand exceeding their expectations this far”. Means we probably are headed to $7.50 😂

$BCRX the kids pellets are the difference maker, thus allow this to hit a billion in sales. Works as a kid, why the hell would you ever switch? It’s been said buy $PHVS has a long way to go before I’m scared

$BCRX this company generates more than half a billion, no better buying opportunity elsewhere , a no brainer ......

$BCRX looking at IOVA rocket to 6b MC. Peak sales for their product apparently 1b. Similar operating costs. Debt is a killer.