MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp

$MPC $VLO at this point they’re running an insider scheme on crack spreads some deal was made backdoor with the administration to pump these bags like this $SPY $XLE

$MPC You know you got a winner when oil is down, crack spreads are down and this is green! Damage in the world is done! This thing could be idle and still make money now!

$MPC at a multi-year high, and profit is up 301% in a year, to $8.6B. Top 1% of 3,283 stocks on the Quality Score, Exceptional at 21.

$MPC so, are refining margins just going to increase as oil falls? Will this hit $450 before $350?

$MPC $BNO $USO Just look at the 1y and 5y graphs of USO, BNO and XLE, people milking money off people paying high gas prices. Ytd so far: MPC +197.37% BNO +137.25% USO +133.89% COP +59.96% XLE +55.65% XOM +47.56% Oil stocks hitting aths after aths this whole year, won’t go up forever. This will crash hard soon.

$MPC Going to fly tomorrow for option expiry day. This pullback helps. Oil report was BULLISH AF

$MPC Same pattern every single day, red premarket then rips up just the same on market open. Expecting $485 today at the very least! BOOM already green!!! From 7 bucks down premarket. Bunch of crap.

$MPC Jefferies cut Marathon to Hold late Monday with a $413 target. Analyst Lloyd Byrne's argument: after a ~200% two-year run, the stock prices in midcycle refining margins staying elevated through 2030. Diesel exports are where those margins are coming from. Refiners have made about $25B off diesel exports in the past 90 days, per S&P Global Energy. That same $25B is why the White House is mulling a diesel export ban, per Treasury's Bessent. Goldman is still a Buy at $472.

$MPC Raymond James raised its target to 560 dollars from 445 on Monday and kept Outperform, after the stock hit a fresh 52-week high at 493.98 dollars intraday. That 560 is now the Street high, and it's well above the average target around 442 dollars, which actually sits below where the stock trades. Dispersion like that usually means estimates are still catching up to refining margins, Q2 printed 36.33 dollars a barrel vs 17.58 a year ago.

$MPC Here is the part that surprises people. The US produced 5.1 million barrels a day of distillate from January through August, the most since 2019, with refineries at 97% of capacity. Diesel hit an all-time record anyway. You cannot fix that by running harder. 97% is already the ceiling.

$MPC Friday closed the loop on the September 25 export-ban threat. Trump dropped the ban after the G7 agreed to a coordinated 100-million-barrel release through the IEA over four months, frontloaded with a "substantial" diesel release in the first 20 days. "We're not going to be doing the export ban," Trump told reporters. US diesel was $6.37 a gallon Friday per AAA, off the ~$6.50 record late September. Brent fell to $100.50, WTI to $90.85. The part that matters for refiners is that the release targets refined products, not just crude. Saxo's Ole Hansen put it plainly: the stress is no longer crude availability, it is refined-product supply. 100 million barrels over four months is about 830K barrels a day of extra supply on paper, and US refineries supplied roughly a third of EU diesel imports this year. Jefferies' Hold case was that the price assumes diesel margins stay elevated. Watching Gulf Coast cracks into the Q3 print.

$MPC using the same algos $CVNA did last year…. Hope that analyst that increased the market cap by more than 7 billion today after releasing the report this morning is partying. Super low daily vol compared to shares outstanding, buy side a couple thousand shares for each minute candle, a block doubling in size compared to X candles then sells and knocks the price down, half of the preceding amount is then just required on the buy side to pump up back to the same level or greater. Could easily go above $500 or back to $350. October options may start to tame this behavior now that it’s only 2 weeks out.