MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp

$MPC New all time high today. Golden age of the refiners. Earnings expected to be up 341% this year on record crack spreads.

$MPC $VLO at this point they’re running an insider scheme on crack spreads some deal was made backdoor with the administration to pump these bags like this $SPY $XLE

$MPC so, are refining margins just going to increase as oil falls? Will this hit $450 before $350?

$MPC Jefferies cut Marathon to Hold late Monday with a $413 target. Analyst Lloyd Byrne's argument: after a ~200% two-year run, the stock prices in midcycle refining margins staying elevated through 2030. Diesel exports are where those margins are coming from. Refiners have made about $25B off diesel exports in the past 90 days, per S&P Global Energy. That same $25B is why the White House is mulling a diesel export ban, per Treasury's Bessent. Goldman is still a Buy at $472.

$MPC I can see some money being made trading but a stock that historically trades no more than 2X book value trading at 5x to 6x book likely isn't drawing to many longs. Likely to move down quick when the crack spreads tighten. Even on the higher end of the historical range maybe $150. I have no position currently but if did it would be short. I guess some feel $6+ diesel is sustainable?

$MPC using the same algos $CVNA did last year…. Hope that analyst that increased the market cap by more than 7 billion today after releasing the report this morning is partying. Super low daily vol compared to shares outstanding, buy side a couple thousand shares for each minute candle, a block doubling in size compared to X candles then sells and knocks the price down, half of the preceding amount is then just required on the buy side to pump up back to the same level or greater. Could easily go above $500 or back to $350. October options may start to tame this behavior now that it’s only 2 weeks out.

$MPC down about 1.9% premarket, worst large cap i can find this morning, and energy is basically the only red group on a green tape. brent's off 2.51 to 101.40, fourth straight down session and the longest slide since june. driver is saudi supply coming back, aramco pushing more than 4 million barrels a day through hormuz this month against about 2.4 million in august. small move in absolute terms, but the whole complex is red while s&p futures are up 0.6%.

$MPC not much in the way of distribution weeks. All heavy volume weeks are bullish. Queue the refinery explosion somewhere in North America

$MPC long MPC, PSX and DINO. Could just be long CRAK and own the basket. Is this just another cycle in refining margins or is there a secular change?

BTIG warned that oil refining stocks could face a correction after the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Index (S5OILR) surged about 124% year to date, its strongest performance in 30 years. The index is now 122% above its 200-week moving average, its second-largest gap on record, while its weekly RSI has reached 81. Historical data show that when the index posted a weekly RSI above 80 and traded at least 50% above its 200-week average, it declined in seven of eight instances, with a median 12-week return of -7.2%. Four-week average and median returns under similar conditions were -2.8% and -3%, respectively, with losses occurring 75% of the time. BTIG compared the current refining rally with semiconductor and AI trading in late June, suggesting that positive fundamentals may already be priced in for the next six to 12 months. The firm also noted that the Oil Services ETF fell 1.6% last week, potentially signaling broader weakness across the energy sector. $MPC $VLO $PSX

$MPC options flow lesson: one options print is evidence, not a complete thesis. A large print can be directional, hedged, or one leg of a spread. Price structure and the next open interest settle help grade it. The alert snapshot shows $295K in the Mar 19 $420 puts. Volume was 14.7x standing open interest at capture. Intraday volume does not establish whether a position was opened or held; the next settled open interest is the check.

$MPC 400 area getting pricy. Shorts will pile in i suspect. Trump needs to curb high gas prices or he will be kicked to the curb. He hopefully will be regardless.

$MPC The refiners are running hard and near capacity limits, which constrains how much additional total crude they can process without further investments or reduced throughput of other grades. Absorbing large new volumes of any crude (including Venezuelan) faces real operational headroom constraints.