SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Everyone needs to take a good look at the long-term $SMH channel. That massive April–June 2026 rally is starting to remind me of the kind of euphoria you see near major market tops. And that's what worries me about the semiconductor trade. People get so comfortable with stocks going higher that they completely forget how much damage a reversal can do. Now ask yourself something. If $SMH were to fall back to $300, could your portfolio survive it? Zoom out. Look at the channel. A very crucial time to understand what you're holding.

What few are willing to admit is that the 2 key drivers of the 2026 parabolic tech rally (March to June) are now in BEAR MARKETS: chips and memory. -28% and -49% respectively. So many big fund managers are now deeply underwater and will load the market with supply on every pop. This will take time to heal. $SMH $DRAM

Maybe, just maybe, $SMH names have known the Jensen news for months now, hence the weakness. His resignation marks the end of the dispersion and people looking to re-allocate funds. Now we see the winners outside of $AMD and $AVGO so far. One that's not on many radars is one of the smaller ones that has shown some boss strength. $LSCC

$SMH the sector that's been a mess and started a large reason for the sell off was able to reclaim the sell candle with some authority while the world discovered that Jensen is in fact not a grandpa.

$SMH watch out. If $NVDA turns up gonna really ignite the markets. Not out of the woods but seeing strong setups. Need more consolidations on the right side but capitulation last week was likely the low.

The FinTwit eye test tells me everyone’s short semiconductors. - CMT’s are telling everyone to short. - Bloomberg telling everyone it’s over. - Jensen’s given up. This is why I suspect they’ll probably go higher. Go chart by chart in $SMH and tell me what you see.. And what if the $NVDA engineers demand Jensen gets reinstated or they walk..? Charts are very helpful among a sea of unknowns.

$SMH closed at 501.73, below its 504.27 recovery reference after $NVDA’s CEO exit. $RSP held above 216.87 despite a 0.87% decline. A chip rebound needs participation: 221 NYSE stocks hit new lows. Watching a sustained SMH reclaim alongside fewer breakdowns.

$SMH Puts on Nvidia ($NVDA). Here’s why the near-term looks ugly: 1. Rudderless ship: Jensen is out. Respect to Colette Kress, but she’s juggling both CFO and interim CEO while the board goes CEO shopping. Zero clarity. 2. DOJ heat: Federal probe over alleged collusion with spies. Nobody wants to sign massive deals with a company under active DOJ investigation. 3. Asia revenue toast: Watch those Singapore and Malaysia data center numbers evaporate once export enforcement cracks down. Hard to see a bullish catalyst here until the dust settle

Congrats to anyone that took advantage of the selloff in chips... I have a strong suspicion that you will be rewarded in short order. Fears that the '27/'28 (global) buildout of land/power/shell would drastically slow due to the midterm results was always silly in my opinion. Expect the status quo to carry on in full effect. (Side note: 11 D house representatives including Pelosi didn't even vote on Hegseth's impeachment yesterday... hmmmm) $SMH $AVGO $CLS $CRDO

$SMH Puts on Nvidia ($NVDA). Here’s why the near-term looks ugly: Rudderless ship: Jensen is out. Respect to Colette Kress, but she’s juggling both CFO and interim CEO while the board goes CEO shopping. Zero clarity. DOJ heat: Federal probe over alleged collusion with spies. Nobody wants to sign massive deals with a company under active DOJ investigation. Asia revenue toast: Watch those Singapore and Malaysia data center numbers evaporate once export enforcement cracks down. Hard to see a bullish catalyst here until the dust settle

$SMH $MU What is with the semis and AI. Some individual stocks are down 60, 70 and even 80%. We are in severe need of a turnaround. Fundamentals are still strong!

Short sellers are ruining american small caps and driving companies into bankruptcy!! FMFC has barely 800 watchers on Stocktwits and has been shorted down to only 1.5 million market cap. You could literally buy the ENTIRE company! Webull data stating that FMFC has only 492k shares outstanding and 243k shares float. Watch FMFC here. Making a move 🚀 💎 👀 $SMH $CLOV trA

For the week ahead: Daily bounces on watch after last week's sell-off. $SMH holding up despite negative $ORCL and $NVDA headlines. Could this signal bear exhaustion? Watching $XLF and $NKE for weekly consolidation, while gold and miners show relative strength. The size of bounces will be key.

Seasonally, Semiconductors $SMH $SOXX normally strengthen, attracting buying demand, between November and February.

$SMH Semiconductors (SMH)- Weekly Price trying to dig in here/hold a 61.8% retracement and structural support level going back to mid April...

Michael Burry Doubles Down On Nasdaq 100 Puts, Adds To Semiconductor Shorts As Nvidia Faces Scrutiny $SMH $NDX https://stocktwits.com/news/equity/markets/michael-burry-doubles-down-on-nasdaq-100-puts-adds-to-semiconductor-shorts-as-nvidia-faces-scrutiny/cNGCfLLR9O4

$SMH $QQQ Best to do nothing. Chop city. Only thing is earnings Episodic pivots besides that this market not worth a time.... Eventually it will set up..until than swing trade very difficult.

$SMH Semis as I reviewed in last night's video yday's rally just moved priced to the top of BOTTOM of the Nov Value Area - RESISTANCE with price getting rejected

$SMH when the whole chip complex trades as one ticker, diversification inside the trade is gone. seems like a selloff that starts with one name now has a ready made basket to spread through

One could argue that while $SMH is in its 4th wave, $SPY is just in its 2nd wave. (2018 vs 2026)