Oil’s Roller Coaster Ride 🎢

OPEC+, its allies, and the oil market are on a roller coaster ride. 🎢

OPEC+’s stalemate plunged today’s oil prices. The organization’s deadlock between the UAE and Saudi Arabia reversed this week’s six-year crude highs. 😪

Last week, OPEC and its allies met to finalize a 2021 output policy—a proposal to return 400K barrels per day to the market from August until December… buut the UAE rejected the proposals, asking for a higher quota of barrels produced.

Discussions between the organization’s members are postponed indefinitely. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said “The date of the next meeting will be decided in due course.” Meanwhile, UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei commented: 

For us, it wasn’t a good deal.” 

Lower supply = higher demand. So while light crude oil futures fell 2.38% today, if a deal isn’t reached soon we could be looking at $100/bbl oil in our future… 

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Oil & Gas Sector Loses Its Energy

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In very short-term fundamental news, gasoline inventories surprised to the upside today on weak demand. That caused the commodity to extend its recent selloff. But more importantly, we also saw heating oil and crude oil selloff in tandem after holding relatively strong during gasoline’s pullback.

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Below is a chart that technical analysts have been eying this week as palladium futures attempt to reverse their downward course. The weekly line chart goes back to 2010 and shows prices bouncing back from the $800 to $900 region, which has served as a transition area for buyers/sellers over the last 14 years. 📊

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Are Investors Sleeping On Commodities?

We know pulling people’s attention away from stocks is tough, especially when they’re rallying. But as we close out the week, we wanted to point out that many of this week’s top-performing assets were commodities.

The chart below from Finviz shows that nine of the top ten performers this week were commodity futures, with Natural Gas topping the list at +16.19%. 🤩

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Gold Soars To All-Time Highs

About a week after the chatter around gold began to pick up on Stocktwits, the shiny metal is hitting new all-time highs. But still, some are perplexed as to why it’s rallying. 🤔

Bears argue that gold should not be rallying in the current environment. After all, inflation continues to trend back toward the Fed’s 2% target, and the economy is holding up well thanks to a strong labor market and consumer spending. And with the risk-free rate still above 5%, some investors and traders argue there are better alternatives to gold and precious metals as a group.

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