Jobless Claims Jump

Weekly unemployment claims rose this week, one sign that the economy isn’t back to normal just yet.

First-time jobless claims amounted to over 351,000 this week, which is up 16,000 from the week before. Analysts expected 320,000. The number of continuing claims (people who are already collecting unemployment) is up 181,000 to 2.84 million.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed wants to see more progress with employment before raising interest rates or beginning robust tapering. 🤷

Throughout the pandemic, initial and continuing claims have been in decline. However, over the last few months, these numbers have remained relatively stable, suggesting the employment recovery is all but over.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits is expected to fall in coming days and weeks as enhanced unemployment benefits end. According to Bank of America, over seven million people are expected to lose enhanced unemployment completely; three million more will lose supplemental income ($300/week) on top of their paychecks.

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World Bank Warns About Growth

The World Bank says the global economy is on course to record its worst half-decade of growth in about 30 years. 😬

The organization’s “Global Economic Prospects” report is now forecasting global growth to slow for the third year in a row during 2024, falling from 2.6% last year to 2.4%. Even if it rises to 2.7% in 2025, the acceleration over the last five-year period will be about 0.75 percentage points below the average rate of the 2010s.

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A Divergence In Homebuilders

Today’s National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index experienced its first negative reading in seven months. 🔻

The index dropped 5 points to 45 in September, with all three components declining. Current sales conditions slipped to 51, sales expectations in the next six months fell to 49, and buyer traffic dropped to 30.

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Global Yields Continue Their Ascent

Today’s big story is the U.S. 10-year yield closing at its highest since 2007. July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed that officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation, causing an already weak bond market to continue falling. 📊

In the U.S., stronger-than-anticipated growth and a historically strong labor market have investors concerned that rates could need to stay higher for longer. As a result, most of the yield curve has been pressing to new highs, with big investors like Big Ackman betting against bonds. The recent uptick pushed 30-year U.S. mortgage rates to 7.16%, their highest since 2001. 📈

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Stocks Jump As Jobs Slump

If you’re confused about why the stock market jumped today despite more evidence of the labor market weakening, we’ve got you covered. 👇

Earlier this week, we discussed several leading indicators suggesting the U.S. labor market is returning to pre-pandemic levels. That’s big news because a historically tight labor market has been keeping upward pressure on wages. And since wages tend to be sticky, that puts upward pressure on services inflation, which has been the hardest part of inflation to bring down.

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