Inflation’s Cool Down ❄️

Inflation is cooling off according to the U.S’s inflation indicator, the consumer price index (CPI.) ❄️

The CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, a slightly lower figure than economists expected. The figure was up 5.3% year-over-year, which is definitely higher than inflation numbers from prior years. However, inflation’s recent rise seems to be tapering off — an indication that the worst could be over. 

Energy and food accounted for most of last month’s rises, with energy costs up 2%. Gasoline prices rose 2.8%, which happened in-part as a result of disruptions to oil-producing activity in the Gulf. The EIA’s most recent report from Sept. 9 indicated that Hurricane Ida shut down “96% of the crude oil production and 94% of the natural gas production in the … Gulf.” The report also stated that “significant levels of refining … and production remain shut in”  as of now. 

If you take food and energy out of the equation (two of the more volatile categories), then America’s inflation indicator only jumped 0.1% for the month (compared to 0.3% estimated.) The Fed stands behind its former comments that inflation will fade after shortages and supply chain woes subside. 📉

All four major indexes traded down today.

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13,000 Auto Workers Strike

After failing to reach a deal with the “Big Three Automakers” before Thursday’s 11:59 p.m. deadline, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union officially launched its historic strike. Although there have been major strikes before, there has never been a strike against all three automakers at once.

Combined, the automakers have 150,000 UAW-represented employees across their operations. For now, though, the strike is beginning at just one factory from each automaker, accounting for roughly 13,000 workers. However, union leaders say they could gradually expand the strike to additional plants (or all of them) if their demands are unmet.

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The War On Inflation Is Won

It wouldn’t be an inflation data day without some drama, so let’s get into what happened. 👇

First off, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM and 3.7% YoY. That was ten bps above estimates, driven primarily by higher energy prices. As for core consumer prices, they rose 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, as expected.

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Market Looks Past CPI Report

If it feels like the market is largely finished obsessing about inflation data, it’s because it essentially is. Unless there’s a significant pick up in the core inflation metrics the Fed is watching closely, the market seems set on rates staying steady at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

And August’s consumer price index (CPI) data did little to move the needle. 😴

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Yield Curve Inversion Deepens

It’s been about a year since the yield curve popped onto investors’ radars, with us discussing it in October and November of 2022. ◀️

As discussed in our posts, a yield curve inversion is not a perfect indicator of a recession, but it has a pretty good track record. That’s because when short-term rates are above long-term rates, investors believe growth (i.e., inflation) will be higher in the short term than the longer term. As such, they demand a higher yield to hold short-term bonds than long-term ones.

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