The crypto market appears to have hit the pause button this week as investors digest Powell’s recent comments and concerns over banking jitters persist. ⏸️
We’ll be taking a closer look at the recent announcement that Nasdaq is entering the crypto custody space.
And for those of you following the NFTs, we’ll look at the recent settlement that decided who is the rightful owner of the first NFT.
Last but not least, because March is almost done, the Technically Speaking article will examine historical trends in the crypto market during the month of April and Q2.
From a price action perspective, not a whole heck of a lot going on today. However – the weekend is coming up, and that’s when things go crazy in crypto, so keep your eyes open!
Here’s how the market looked at the end of the trading day:
| Monero (XMR) |
$157.30
|
1.97% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $27,738 | 0.05% |
| TRON (TRX) | $0.063 | -0.77% |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) |
$20.06
|
-1.81% |
| BNB (BNB) |
$320.61
|
-2.11% |
| Litecoin (LTC) | $90.63 | -2.23% |
| Cardano (ADA) | $0.362 | -2.37% |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | $0.0000105 | -2.65% |
| Polygon (MATIC) | $1.08 | -2.66% |
| Avalance (AVAX) | $16.96 | -2.68% |
| Altcoin Market Cap |
$591 Billion
|
-3.04% |
| Total Market Cap | $1.13 Trillion | -2.46% |
The NASDAQ is set to launch its institutional crypto custody services in a few months, according to a report by Bloomberg. 😱
This move comes as the cryptocurrency industry continues to grow in popularity, despite regulatory FUD and government disdain.
Institutional investors are increasingly looking to invest in cryptocurrencies, and Nasdaq’s custody services will provide them with a secure way to do so.
Nasdaq is not the only traditional financial institution that is entering the cryptocurrency space. Goldman Sachs ($GS) and Morgan Stanley ($MS) have announced plans to offer crypto custody services.
The entry of these major financial institutions into the cryptocurrency industry is a sign of the growing maturity of the market. It is also a sign of the increasing demand for institutional-grade crypto custody services.
And it’s just another example of why the only thing bearish in the crypto space is price action – adoption by traditional money continues to grow every year.
The exchange will reportedly offer custody services for $BTC, $ETH, and other major cryptocurrencies. 💪
Back in 2014, Kevin McCoy and Anil Dash whipped up the first NFT at a digital art conference. Fast forward to 2021, and McCoy banked $1.5 million selling that historic NFT, Quantum, at an auction. But six months later, a Canadian company called Free Holdings sued McCoy, saying they owned the NFT. 🎨
A New York judge tossed the case, saying the company didn’t prove ownership, bad intentions, or damages. Free Holdings argued that McCoy lost ownership of Quantum by not updating his records on the Namecoin ($NMC) blockchain in 2015, and they claimed it in 2021. For the auction, McCoy moved the NFT to Ethereum and said the original was “burned” when the registration expired.
This case brought the Web3 idea of “code is law” to the legal system.
In the crypto world, if it’s in your wallet, it’s yours. Not your keys, not your crypto.
But as McCoy said in federal court, “law is law.”
The judge considered how ownership works on the Namecoin blockchain and seemed to lean toward the idea that the NFT is the public key, not the token itself. With this view, Free Holdings just had a different NFT, not Quantum on Ethereum. The judge said the company was trying to cash in on the confusion around NFT ownership. 🎨
There’s one more week left in March before the end of Q1 2023 and the beginning of Q2 2023.
It’s a good time to review how Q2 and the month of April have historically performed for $BTC and the broader crypto market.
Historically, for Bitcoin, Q2 is the best-performing quarter of the year. 🎉
🔴 2010 -1.32%
🟩 2011 +1,952%
🟩 2012 +36.29%
🟩 2013 +4.82%
🟩 2014 +40.22%
🟩 2015 +7.52%
🟩 2016 +61.51%
🟩 2017 +11.38%
🔴 2018 -7.74%
🟩 2019 +162.61%
🟩 2020 +42.19%
🔴 2021 -40.19%
🔴 2022 -56.16%
Average Q2 Gain: +52.36% (starting from 2012)
Average Q2 Loss: -34.76% (starting from 2012)
The best-performing Q2 (excluding 2011)was 2019, +162.61%.
The worst performing Q2 was 2022, -56.16%.
Q2 contains what is historically the best month for Bitcoin, May (+50.39% average gain).
But April (10th best performing) and June (8th best performing) are at the tail end of how well they perform on a monthly basis.
From a bearish perspective, June is the 4th worst-performing month for Bitcoin (-17.12% average loss).
How has April performed in the past? 🤔
Historically, April’s performance is mixed for Bitcoin, with 7 of the past 13 in the green and 6 in the red. 🤷♂️
🔴 2010 -45.18%
🔴 2011 -11.34
🟩 2012 +0.82
🟩 2013 +49.66
🔴 2014 -1.74%
🔴 2015 -3.44%
🟩 2016 +7.35%
🟩 2017 +26.02%
🟩 2018 +33.53%
🟩 2019 +28.67%
🟩 2020 +24.31%
🔴 2021 -1.71%
🔴 2022 -17.30%
Average April Gain: +25.48%
Average April Loss: -13.45%
In terms of historical average bullish performance, April ranks 10th among the months of the year compared to the others.
April’s historical average bearish performance rank is 6th among the months of the year.
Since 2010, April has closed in the green 9 times vs. 4 times in the red.
The best April on record is 2013, +49.66%.
Except for 2010 (-45.18%), the worst-performing April was 2022, -17.30%.
The month of March is almost done, and unless something dramatic happens (which would be totally normal), Bitcoin will close in the green for the third month in a row.
This raises another question related to cycle analysis – if March ends with a positive gain, what is the frequency of April ending with a positive gain as well? Only 3 times since 2010.
We’ll dive a little more into Q2 and April in next Friday’s Technically Speaking, until then, have a great weekend! 👋
Bullets
Bullets From The Day:
🚨 Do Kwon has reportedly been in Montenegro after being identified by local authorities. The guy who clearly isn’t hiding and says he has no reason to hide got caught with false identification documents. He is facing charges from both the US Securities and Exchange Commission and South Korean authorities for allegedly being behind a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme involving TerraUSD, Terra’s now-defunct algorithmic stablecoin.
🛢️ $ETH is not a security, it’s more like oil, says Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin. Lubin argued that Ether is more like a commodity, such as oil or gold, and that its value is not tied to the success of the Ethereum network. He further stated that Ether’s value comes from its ability to function as a means of payment within the Ethereum ecosystem and that its use is not limited to just that network.
🤣 Lil Yachty, Soulja Boy, Ne-Yo, Akon, and other influencers/celebrities are charged by SEC for illegal cryptocurrency promotions. According to the SEC, these celebrities were paid by three cryptocurrency companies to promote their ICOs on social media, but they failed to disclose these payments as required by law. The SEC considers these promotions to be illegal securities offerings. Lil Yachty, who was paid $375,000 for his promotion, has already agreed to settle the charges and pay a $50,000 penalty.
💰 $BTC to $100k in 2023? According to insiders in the cryptocurrency industry, Bitcoin could reach new highs in 2023, potentially surpassing the record-breaking price of $64,000 reached in April 2021. Experts cited Bitcoin’s performance during the current banking crisis as one catalyst that could send crypto higher. Some analysts also suggested that increasing regulation and adoption of bitcoin as a store of value could further drive up the price.
🪑 Donald Trump NFTs have seen a 30% increase in value over the past week. Polygon ($MATIC)-based Trump Digital Trading Cards are currently being sold for over 0.59 ETH, or about $1,033, up from 0.33 ETH, or $578, last week. More than 735 Trump NFTs have been sold during that period, attracting 401 ether in trading volume, according to data from NFT marketplace OpenSea. The rally comes as reports suggest Trump could be indicted on charges stemming from an alleged hush money payment made to adult actress Stormy Daniels at the height of the 2016 election.
🗺️ According to DappRadar, NFT trading in virtual worlds hit an all-time high in Q1 2023. $311 million in virtual land trading spiked, with 147k trades generating the trading volume, with platforms like Yuga Labs’ Otherside and MG Land leading the way. Otherdeed NFTs, linked to land in the Otherside metaverse, generated $222m in trading volume – a 237% increase from the previous quarter. DappRadar’s report also found that the Sandbox, Axie Infinity, and Decentraland made the list of top virtual world dapps.
Links
Links That Don’t Suck:
🏎️ Bitcoin spot & derivative trading volumes surge
🖲️ Matter Labs opens zkSync era to users, claiming first in ‘Zero Knowledge’ tech on Ethereum
🧱 Another hard week for the crypto industry — particularly Justin Sun
😲 Record-breaking Bitcoin hashrate signals strong network momentum as price hovers above $28,000
😭 Watch out — Diablo IV might break your Nvidia GPU
🚀 Coinbase CEO advocates more crypto representation in politics
Credits & Feedback
Today’s Litepaper was written by Jon Morgan. Let him know how he did: