$CLSD What's the feasibility that CLSD sells their patents related to gene therapy via the SCS to ABBV / RGNX, plus receives a portion of all potential future milestones and a one-time royalty payment and virtually ending their connection to these companies?
If so, what type of $$$ would they earn? $100,000,000 for the patents, $50,000,000 for milestones, and another $50,000,000 one-time royalty payment on future sales of RGX314???
They move forward as an independent company and can run the CLS-AX trials, pay off some debt, and create future licenses for small molecules and complement inhibitors against GA and other diseases?
Thoughts?
Back
Since Post
Full Details
/filters:format(webp)/images/default_avatar_8_large.png){kind=avatar}
@maphere i think your guess on the milestone and royalty would be about right given my quick back of the napkin math. The patents i think may be a little rich but depends on the terms. Its an interesting idea. Regenx did just do a huge raise so they got cash if im not mistaken.
/filters:format(webp)/production/820890/large-1593100532.png)
@sushistocks23 Grok gave me the estimate on the patents but that answers is based off of slim data.
The other item to monetize is the injector itself which CLSD said cost them over $100 million to produce...so either CLSD continues supplying the device or sells the rights to be used by them under the condition of gene therapy purposes.
CLSD seems strong headed about the CLS-AX PH3 trials and not sure if ABBV is on board with the program...but I'll reiterate they have chosen to put RGX314 on the back burner for wAMD. If their dose level 4 provides a solid update however, they may move forward with the SCS program for wAMD...if so...that could alter CLSD's plans...so many moving parts, we need information.
Show More
@maphere i plugged a similar question into gemini. It spit out 200-600mm for patents, future milestones, and future royalties.
/filters:format(webp)/images/default_avatar_11_large.png){kind=avatar}
@maphere think it would be a bit higher as there are so many rare ocular diseases that would come with couchers that can be worth more then a million. Lot of gene therapy opportunities within ocular space. Interesting idea not against it though.
/filters:format(webp)/production/8764591/large-1744116027.png)
@maphere
For Regenxbio I do not see the advantage of engaging in such a transaction, I would argue the organization views cash today at a great premium to potential cash tomorrow at the moment given their recent transaction with HCR.
Though from Abbvie's perspective things are abit different, lets assign about 150 million of the original initial payment to SCS and about 350 million in cash outflow for the NPDR pivotals. So from Abbvie's perspective the ~60% of the potential economic benefit is worth atleast 500 million. Lets say operating margins are 70% on RGX-314 and post taxes and misc things Abbvie gets about 35% of that revenue as cashflow to the bottom line.
So from Abbvie's perspective the ~5% Clearside gets has to be worth atleast 71 million. Though eyeballing it the likely present value of the rest of the costs is probably another ~200 million for the SCS assets. So if Abbvie was interested they would put up atleast 100 million imo, and 20 million to account for milestones.
Show More
/filters:format(webp)/production/7053576/large-1740504783.png)
@maphere I think this ship is havelly sinking and management is abounding the company.
Clearside Biomedical's odds of distress is above 80% at the present time. They are not currently bankrupt, but the company has faced challenges in developing retinal drug. Clearside Biomedical is a company that generates revenue from license agreements, services, and sales of kits to licensees but that's not enough to push the stock price up to $4.00..