Bitcoin Rises While Trump Weighs Iran Deal, But The Bigger Question Is Whether It’s Becoming Digital Gold

• Trump said any deal would require Iran to permanently abandon nuclear weapons ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping.
• Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said Bitcoin’s volatility and correlation patterns are increasingly resembling gold.
• Balchunas also noted that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has outperformed broader U.S. equities since the Iran conflict began and has more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 since the ETF filing.

Bitcoin (BTC) moved higher towards $74,000 in midday trade on Friday after President Donald Trump said that he was heading to the Situation Room to make a “final determination” on a potential agreement with Iran. 

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that his conditions included a permanent commitment by Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping traffic.

Bitcoin’s price rose 1.3% in the last 24 hours to around $73,700 and was the top trending cryptocurrency on Stocktwits at the time of writing. Retail sentiment on the platform around BTC rose to ‘bearish’ from ‘extremely bearish’ territory over the past day, while chatter dipped to ‘normal’ from ‘high’ levels.

Bitcoin’s ‘Digital Gold’ Test Gains Attention

According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin's volatility and correlation is getting “closer and closer” to gold's and is perhaps one positive outcome from the U.S.-Iran war, comparing BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) in post on X.

GLD’s price gained 1.45% in midday trade on Friday. Retail sentiment around the fund on Stocktwits rose to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ territory over the past day.

Balchunas also pointed out that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has still outperformed U.S. equities since the Iran conflict began and has generated more than double the returns of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since BlackRock first filed for its ETF. SPY’s price edged 0.27% higher in midday trade, with retail sentiment trending in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day on Stocktwits. 

Blachunas added an ETF executive told him large institutional investors and financial advisors are primarily interested in Bitcoin's potential to function as an alternative asset similar to gold, rather than another source of equity-market exposure.

The analyst said that surveys consistently showed that Bitcoin's price swings remain the biggest reason investors stay on the sidelines.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters For Crypto

The immediate focus for markets remains the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes. Many retail traders on Stocktwits expected Bitcoin’s price to rally if the blockade that’s currrently in place, and pressuring oil prices, is removed, while others were not so optimistic.

Any agreement that guarantees uninterrupted passage through the waterway could ease concerns about global oil supply disruptions and reduce pressure on inflation expectations. On the other hand, renewed uncertainty could push energy prices higher and reignite broader macroeconomic concerns.

If retail investors continue to view Bitcoin primarily as a risk asset, a de-escalation in the Middle East could support prices alongside stocks and other growth-oriented assets. However, if investors view Bitcoin as a form of digital gold, its reaction may become less tied to equity markets and more aligned with traditional safe-haven assets.

Ethereum, Solana Outperform Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency rally also lifted Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), which outperformed Bitcoin. Ethereum’s price rose over 2.2% in the last 24 hours to cross $2,000 and was also among the top trending cryptocurrencies on Stocktwits in Friday midday trade. Meanwhile, Solana’s price gained around 2% and hit $82.

Retail sentiment around Ethereum remained in the ‘bearish’ zone over the past day, while sentiment around Solana trended in ‘extremely bearish’ territory. 

The overall cryptocurrency market rose around 1.2% in the last 24 hours to around $2.56 trillion. 

Read also: Stellar’s XLM Hits 4-Month High After DTCC Picks Blockchain For Tokenized Stocks, ETFs, Treasuries

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