Gary Black Sees More Pain For Bitcoin To Reflect Geopolitical And Deleveraging Risks

• Rising tensions with Iran pushed oil prices up, fueled concerns about inflation, and caused investors to seek safe havens such as gold, which surged as BTC declined.
• Retail sentiment around BTC trended in ‘extremely bearish’ territory amid ‘low’ message volume. 

Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Funds said on Friday that he expects bitcoin to continue to decline to reflect a combination of macro forces, deleveraging, and shifting risk-off sentiment creating a prolonged correction similar to 2022. 

He said in a social media post that BTC has fallen 47% since its $125.3K high last Oct 6th to today’s $65.9K.

Bitcoin at the time of writing was down 4% to $65,984. 

Factors Pointed Out By Black

Black said that high futures open interest led to cascading liquidations when prices dropped. Billions in long positions were wiped out in waves, amplifying downside moves far beyond what fundamentals alone would suggest, as forced selling created thin liquidity and negative momentum.

Rising tensions with Iran pushed oil prices up, fueled concerns about inflation, and caused investors to seek safe havens such as gold, which surged as BTC declined. At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened, the Federal Reserve issued hawkish signals, and Treasury yields increased. As a result, risk assets like BTC and tech stocks declined as capital flowed into safer investments, the post added.

“After the 2021-2023 Bitcoin drawdown of -75% from $66.1K in Nov 2021 to $15.6K in Nov 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it took Bitcoin two and a half years (until March 2024) to fully recover its losses,” Black said. 

“After fueling the 2025 rally, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net outflows reflecting profit-taking, drawdown thresholds, and reduced risk appetite amid volatility. This contrasted with earlier inflows and institutional support,” he further added. 

Retail Reaction

Retail sentiment around BTC trended in ‘extremely bearish’ territory amid ‘low’ message volume. 

BTC is down 25% so far in 2026. 

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