Michael Saylor’s Strategy Falls After Mizuho Cuts Bitcoin Forecast, Trims MSTR Target – 'Crypto Winter Remains Intact'

• Mizuho reduced its price target on MSTR’s stock to $265 from $320 but maintained its 'Outperform' rating after slashing its year-end forecast on Bitcoin.
• It noted Strategy's roughly $2 billion cash reserve, which management says can cover about two years of preferred-share dividends.
• Strategy currently holds 843,738 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, valued at around $61 billion as per Bitcoin’s current price.

Shares of Michael Saylor-backed Strategy (MSTR) slipped in premarket trade on Monday after Mizuho cut its price target on the stock and lowered its year-end forecast for Bitcoin (BTC), tempering its outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

"The crypto winter remains intact," the firm wrote in a note to investors cited by TheFly. Mizuho reduced its price target on MSTR’s stock to $265 from $320 but maintained its 'Outperform' rating. 

The price target cut comes after Mizuho updated its valuation model and lowered its year-end 2027 Bitcoin forecast to $94,000 from $128,000, which is below its previous record high of over $126,000 set in October. The lower Bitcoin forecast was the primary driver of the reduction in MSTR's price target.

The firm stated that it remains constructive on Strategy, pointing to the company's roughly $2 billion cash reserve, which management has said is sufficient to cover about two years of preferred-share dividend obligations. Mizuho also noted Strategy's continued development of new financing products tied to its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

How Is Retail Feeling About MSTR’s Stock?

MSTR’s stock fell as much as 2.7% in pre-market trade despite the broader market climbing higher. Retail sentiment around the company on Stocktwits remained in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter.

Some retail investors stated that any significant weakness in MSTR could ultimately mark a major market bottom, speculating that large financial institutions may seek to limit Strategy's dominance before a broader Bitcoin rally resumes.

Others remained on the ‘bullish’ end of the spectrum, pointing to Bitcoin's technical setup and said they expect new highs in the future.

Strategy currently holds 843,738 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, valued at around $61 billion as per Bitcoin’s current price. It’s currently holding onto paper losses with its average cost per BTC at $75,699, while Bitcoin’s price is trading at around $72,600 on Monday morning.

MSTR’s stock has gained nearly 3% this year, while Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 17%. 

Read also: Trump Says 'Iran Really Wants To Make A Deal'— But BTC Is Still Down, Oil Is Still Up, And ETFs Are Still Bleeding

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