A New Crypto Wallet Is Wagering Big On A China–Taiwan Conflict

• New Polymarket wallet Caspersmc has bet $37,000 that China will invade Taiwan by 2026.
• However, another trader, comon119, owns three times as much as Caspersmc.
• U.S. deterrence and Beijing's lack of any clear messaging kept market odds at 13% despite concerns.

A new Polymarket wallet made headlines on Monday after betting over $37,000 on the chance that China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026. 

The wallet created in January 2026, named ‘Caspersmc’, joined Polymarket and put around $37,000 on the "Yes" outcome, buying about 269,892 shares in the market, first flagged by Quiver Quantitative. The wager sparked some online debate about whether it was based on insider information or a risky play connected to escalating geopolitical tensions. If Caspersmc’s bet turns out to be true, it can yield a profit of nearly $290,000. 

However, the trader is not the biggest holder. Polymarket data shows that comon119 holds the largest share, with over 790,122 "Yes" shares, currently valued at about $108,300. This is almost three times the new wallet's exposure. Users trade real-world event contracts in USD Coin (USDC) on Polymarket. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around USDC remained in a ‘bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter over the past day.

Bettors Not Confident On China-Taiwan Conflict

However, the aggregate market odds still suggest that most are not too confident that China would invade Taiwan in 2026, with only 13% betting ‘yes’. Many traders on the platform believe that the US is still a deterrent and that Beijing has not sent any clear signals that it will escalate, with some saying, “The US is distracted with Venezuela, China might just seize the opportunity.” 

In his New Year's address on Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Taiwan's unification, as per ABC News. His statement came days after Chinese live fire operations in Taiwan. Reports say the military drills forced Taiwan to cancel dozens of domestic flights and deploy planes and warships to monitor.

Previously, Lookonchain pointed out that 3 Polymarket traders had made roughly $630,000 after the Venezuelan President’s arrest. The on-chain firm described the traders' profit-taking surrounding Nicolás Maduro's arrest as insider trading.

Read also: Fake ‘MetaMask Support’ Emails Are Stealing Wallet Credentials, SlowMist Warns

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Share

·

Add us on