Will Trump Pardon Sam Bankman-Fried, Roger Ver After Binance’s Zhao? Online Bets Signal Odds Raising

• According to Polymarkets data, on the bet titled “Who will Trump pardon in 2025?”, the odds of Trump pardoning Bankman-Fried rose to 12% from 5.6% within half a day.
• Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud charges related to the collapse of FTX.
• Earlier this month, Ver had agreed to pay $50 million to settle charges against him.

The odds of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Bitcoin entrepreneur Roger Ver getting a presidential pardon rose among online betters after U.S. President Donald Trump granted relief to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao.

The pardon comes after Zhao pled guilty in early 2025 to charges involving failures to maintain an adequate anti-money laundering program. Binance itself agreed to pay a record $4.3 billion settlement to multiple U.S. regulatory agencies, including the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Trump had recently signaled to advisers that he viewed Zhao and other crypto executives as potentially facing politically motivated prosecution. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reportedly said Trump had “exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who the Biden Administration prosecuted in their war on cryptocurrency.”

According to Polymarkets data, on the bet titled “Who will Trump pardon in 2025?”, the odds of Trump pardoning Bankman-Fried rose to 12% from 5.6% within half a day, before retreating to about 7% at the time of writing. On a separate bet named “SBF released from custody in 2025?”, the odds jumped to 12% from just over 4% a day ago.

Traders also bet that Roger Ver, an early cryptocurrency investor known as "Bitcoin Jesus", is the most likely candidate to receive a presidential pardon this year.

What Did Sam Bankman-Fried Do?

Also known as SBF, Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud charges related to the collapse of FTX. The Justice Department stated that Bankman-Fried misappropriated billions of dollars of customer funds deposited with FTX, defrauded investors in FTX of more than $1.7 billion, and defrauded lenders to Alameda of more than $1.3 billion. However, there were some doubts about whether SBF would get the same treatment as Zhao.

“I will be truly shocked if SBF gets a pardon. SBF and CZ are not comparable at all. SBF was a Democratic mega-donor before FTX collapsed, and he went to prison bankrupt,” Jake Chervinsky, the Chief Legal Officer of Variant Fund, said on X.

What Did Roger Ver Do?

Earlier this month, Ver had agreed to pay $50 million to settle charges against him. The investigation into the Bitcoin entrepreneur followed his renunciation of U.S. citizenship in 2014 and his taking up residence in the Caribbean island of St. Kitts and Nevis. U.S. authorities claimed that Ver failed to fully report his bitcoin holdings to the U.S. tax authorities at the time of his expatriation.

"We are pleased that Mr Ver has taken responsibility for his past misconduct and satisfied his obligations to the American public," Associate Deputy Attorney General Ketan Bhirud said in a statement.

What Does Zhao’s Pardon Mean To Retail?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about the Binance token BNB was in the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing.

Some users expressed optimism about BNB and continued support from the Trump administration.

Also See: Bitcoin, Ethereum Climb Ahead Of Inflation Data: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Sees BTC Surging Toward $2M On Gold Boost

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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