Apollo’s Torsten Slok Warns AI Has Delivered ‘Zero Financial Payoff’ Outside Tech — 'AI Story Will Be Decided In The S&P 493, Not The Mag 7'

• Slok’s data painted a sharp divide between the Magnificent 7 and the other 493 companies in the S&P 500.
• Revenue per employee has climbed significantly for the Magnificent 7, reaching roughly $780,000 on an inflation-adjusted basis, while revenue per employee for the S&P 493 remains around $525,000.
• Slok noted that the same pattern appears in profit margins. Margins for the Magnificent 7 have climbed to nearly 30%, while margins for the S&P 493 remain around 10%.

Artificial intelligence has become one of the biggest investment themes in markets, with companies pouring billions of dollars into chips, data centers, software and AI models. But according to Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok, the much-discussed AI payoff has yet to show up across most of corporate America.

Slok argued in a note on Saturday that the gap between technology companies and the broader S&P 500 is becoming increasingly important for investors. While the Magnificent 7 are seeing stronger revenue per worker and expanding profit margins, the rest of the index has yet to show a comparable improvement.

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Slok Warns AI Has Yet To Boost Revenue, Margins Or Productivity

Slok’s data painted a sharp divide between the Magnificent 7 and the other 493 companies in the S&P 500.

Revenue per employee has climbed significantly for the Magnificent 7, reaching roughly $780,000 on an inflation-adjusted basis, while revenue per employee for the S&P 493 remains around $525,000.

Slok noted that the same pattern appears in profit margins. Margins for the Magnificent 7 have climbed to nearly 30%, while margins for the S&P 493 remain around 10%.

The economist highlighted that the bigger question is whether AI is translating into broader productivity gains. Slok’s productivity data shows no clear acceleration in total factor productivity growth despite the rapid adoption and investment in AI.

“Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech,” he said.

Slok added that this leaves the broader corporate sector facing a difficult question: if AI is supposed to transform business, when will that transformation show up in revenue, margins and productivity?

AI Spending Is Concentrated And So Is The Payoff, Says Slok

Slok added that one reason the macroeconomic impact may remain limited is that AI spending itself is highly concentrated.

According to the economist’s data, the top 10% of firms account for 99.5% of spending on model serving and inference, 99% of neocloud spending and more than 95% of spending tied to OpenAI and Anthropic. Even cloud computing spending is heavily concentrated, with the top 10% accounting for 95.7%.

The concentration also extends to venture-backed companies. Among the top 1% of AI spenders, 80.4% are VC-backed, compared with just 13.1% among median AI spenders.

Slok argues that this matters because mainstream corporate America may not need the newest and most expensive AI models, particularly if companies cannot translate them into higher revenue or margins.

“As long as agentic AI and token spending are confined to a small part of the economy, the macroeconomic effects of AI will be very limited,” he said, while adding that the biggest test for AI is no longer what happens at the largest technology companies.

“The AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7,” Slok said.

During the after-hours session on Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, gained 0.15%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) edged up by 0.07%; and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) rose 0.13%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits toward the S&P 500 ETF was in the ‘extremely bearish’ territory at the time of writing.

The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) is up 22% over the past 12 months, while the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) is up 25%.

Also See: AI Debt Has Exploded 4X To Nearly $500 Billion: What It Means For NVDA, ORCL And CRWV, According To IO Fund

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