Apple Set For Best iPhone Growth Since 2022, Analyst Says — Stock Slips But Retail Traders Stay Bullish After New Launches

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) stock fell 1.48% in Tuesday’s regular session, with the bulk of the losses coming after the company’s “Awe Dropping” hardware launch event. The adverse reaction was slightly more severe than the typical “sell-the-launch-news” seen in the stock.

The Tim Cook-led company announced its newest iPhone iterations, which included an Air variant for the first time, AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Series 11/SE3/Ultra 3, as well as the Final Cut Camera 2.0 app that allows “unprecedented” recording capabilities on the high-end iPhone models.

Retail Cheers

Apple was on the radar of the retail users of the Stocktwits platform, with the stock featuring among the top ten equity tickers by late Tuesday. Sentiment toward the stock improved to ‘extremely bullish’ (81/100) levels as of late Tuesday from ‘bullish’ a day ago. The message volume improved further within the ‘high’ levels zone.

The retail optimism stemmed from its view that the stock is oversold. A user of the platform said he expects the stock to bounce to $240+ levels this week, given it was the only Magnificent Seven that fell on Tuesday. The Apple stock settled the session at $234.35.

Another bullish watcher flagged that he is a longtime investor in Apple (since the first iPhone launch), and called the “iPhone Air” a “superb piece.”

Analysts Upbeat

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives was also left impressed. Calling the event a “spark for a new era,” the analyst said, “The company looks to power a new era of use-cases for its Apple ecosystem as it looks to leverage the largest consumer installed base in the world of 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones.”

Ives noted that the company allayed user concerns about the durability of the new iPhone Air, due to its thin design, by introducing it as the most durable iPhone yet. The company also revealed new accessories, including a crossbody strap to hold the phone and a new MagSafe battery, he added.

Citing the complex tariff environment, the company raised the price of the iPhone 17 Pro to $1,099 from $999, but kept the base iPhone 17 price at $799, Ives said, adding that the new Air model will cost $999. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster felt the new Air’s price was $100 above expectations. 

Munster said he expects the Pro and Air models, which have seen meaningful design changes, to account for 70% of the iPhone revenue. “Historically, iPhone sales have seen a bump following meaningful changes in design,” he added.

He called for year-over-year (YoY) iPhone growth to be 10% in the December quarter, compared to the Street estimate of 7%. For the fiscal year 2026, he estimates 7%+ growth, outdoing the 5% growth Wall Street is baking in, marking the best growth since fiscal year 2022.

The tech venture capitalist sees the redesigns boding well for upgrades, with the upgrade pool from the fiscal year 2021 providing a tailwind over the next year. He expects the price changes to increase iPhone’s average selling price (ASP) by 1% over the next year. He also views the addition of hypertension and blood pressure monitoring features to the Apple Watch as “powerful” updates.

Munster also said, as expected, that Apple did not announce anything new on Apple Intelligence or Siri; therefore, the bar is high for next Spring.

All the base models now come with 250GB storage, the analyst said.

Apple’s post-release retreat increased its stock’s year-to-date losses to over 6% by Tuesday’s close.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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