Apple Stock Poised For A Lift? iPhone 17 Seen Driving Best Holiday-Quarter Growth In 4 Years — But Margin Jitters Linger

• Apple is expected to report an 11.4% rise in revenue and 13.6% rise in iPhone sales for the holiday quarter.
• Strong sales of the iPhone 17 line helped Apple reclaim its spot as the top smartphone seller from Samsung last year.  
• Shares of Apple, which reports Thursday evening, have underperformed the benchmark S&P 500 in the last two months.

Apple, Inc. is expected to report strong holiday-quarter results, driven by the success of its iPhone 17 lineup, analysts note, while also flagging risks to the company’s margins from increasing prices of memory components.

About 67% of over 7,000 respondents in a Stocktwits poll believe Apple will beat the top and bottom line targets for its fiscal 2026 first quarter, indicating robust retail investor confidence.
 

Expectations

Third-party data suggests that iPhone 17s – unveiled last September – have been well received by consumers globally. That helped Apple emerge as the top smartphone seller last year, with a 20% market share, according to Counterpoint data. With 10% growth in shipments, it reclaimed the spot from Samsung, whose phone shipments grew 5%.

Analysts expect Apple’s revenue to increase by more than 11% to $138.5 billion – the best pace in four years – and adjusted earnings to increase by a similar pace to $2.67 per share, per Koyfin.

Revenue from iPhone is expected to rise 13.6%, according to Reuters, compared to 7.9% growth in Q4 2025. That would be the strongest pace since Apple’s Q4 2021.
 

Note: Apple uses a different fiscal quarter numbering system. The above chart displays calendar quarters.

AI Engine Finally Revving?

Apple, long criticized for a sluggish AI strategy at a time when the technology is on every investor’s mind, has recently pushed the pedal in the area. Earlier this month, it announced a major partnership to use Google’s Gemini AI for the forthcoming Apple Intelligence features. 

Bloomberg later reported that Apple will overhaul its Siri virtual assistant, and might even launch a ChatGPT-style chatbot, with some of the new features expected to be debuted at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June. Analysts are upbeat. 

Analysts’ View

However, Apple shares have underperformed the S&P 500 Index over the last two months, as positive data points on robust iPhone 17 sales have been overshadowed by margin concerns stemming from the unprecedented rise in memory costs, JPMorgan said in its Apple preview note.

The research firm contended that the earnings setup looked upbeat, adding that Apple shares were trading below their typical peak multiple heading into a key iPhone product cycle.

Wedbush said it anticipates that Apple might share some updates on its AI strategy, including the Gemini integration and the possible introduction of new subscription-based services.

Apple will report its results after the market closes on Thursday. AAPL retail sentiment on Stocktwits was ‘bullish’ in the early hours.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Read Next: Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft Said To Circle Mega Fundraising Round That Could Push OpenAI Valuation Past $800B

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