ASML's Raised Outlook After Q1 Beat Sends Clear Signal: AI Cycle Isn't Peaking Yet

• “Demand for chips is outpacing supply,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said.
• Strong results and demand commentary will have a bearing on shares, as well as those of major chip stocks, on Monday.
• Stocktwits sentiment for ASML shifted to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish.’

ASML Holding NV jumped to the top of Stocktwits' trending list early Wednesday after the Dutch chip-making equipment maker raised its annual sales guidance and posted better-than-expected first-quarter results, sending a clear signal that AI demand remains robust. 

Shares of Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Intel, among other semiconductor stocks, are likely to react to the update when markets open on Wednesday.

Even so, some retail traders on Stocktwits appeared to think the AI-driven rally in ASML's U.S.-listed shares may be approaching a ceiling. ASML stock has jumped 22% from a recent low on March 30 and is within touching distance of a record high. Year to date, the shares are up 42%. South Korea’s SK Hynix said last month that it planned to purchase roughly $8 billion of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines by the end of the year.

Why ASML Matters For Chipmakers

ASML's machines are central to the production of the world's most advanced chips, used by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, among others. The raised forecast and strong quarterly results together reinforce the case that AI infrastructure investment is still accelerating, not plateauing.

"The semiconductor industry's growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments," CEO Christophe Fouquet said. "Demand for chips is outpacing supply. In response, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond."

ASML’s Q1 Update

ASML now expects 2026 sales between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros ($42.47 billion and $47.19 billion), compared with prior guidance of 34 billion euros to 39 billion euros. Revenue last year was 32.67 billion euros.

The company posted sales of 8.77 billion euros for the first quarter, up from 7.74 billion euros a year earlier – beating the 8.69 billion euros estimate from Visible Alpha. Net profit grew to 2.76 billion euros from nearly 2.36 billion euros a year earlier, also beating market expectations.

Retail View On ASML Strengthens, But Some Traders Remain Cautious

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for ASML shifted to ‘extremely bullish’ early Wednesday, from ‘bullish’ the previous day. 

Not everybody was sold, however. “$ASML translation: ai demand peaked last quarter, and this is the highest this stock will ever be as we head into a recession next quarter,” a trader said.

Some believe the valuation is already high compared to sales: “$ASML definitely a beat but 580B market cap for 10B/quarter sales?” questioned a trader.

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