ASTS Stock Jumps Overnight: Retail Eyes Potential Win As Japan's $1B 'Starlink' Award Nears Decision

• A winner is expected by the end of June, with Rakuten and AST reportedly revising their satellite deployment plans ahead of the decision. 
• J-LEO aims to build a nationwide direct-to-cell network for smartphones, including disaster communications.
• Space stocks have also gained momentum after SpaceX's blockbuster IPO.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) jumped 6% overnight heading into Monday as investors focused on a potentially major catalyst from Japan, where the government is expected to select a winner for its "Japanese Starlink" project later this month.

ASTS stock logged its second straight week in the red, declining 12%. 

SpaceX And AST Vie For J-LEO Award

According to a Japanese media report, the leading contenders for the country's J-LEO satellite communications initiative are believed to be a KDDI-SpaceX consortium and a Rakuten Mobile-AST SpaceMobile alliance. The project carries a 150 billion yen ($1 billion) budget and aims to build a direct-to-cell satellite network capable of connecting ordinary smartphones, including during disasters.

J-LEO was launched by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications to establish a domestically controlled low-Earth orbit satellite network. The winning operator must provide nationwide direct-to-cell coverage by March 2029, support video calling across much of the country and ensure communications remain available during emergencies. The report noted that Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile revised their satellite deployment plans earlier this year, highlighting the high stakes of the competition. A winner is expected to be selected by the end of this month.

Space Stocks Get A SPCX Boost

The Japan speculation comes as space stocks continue to benefit from enthusiasm around SpaceX's blockbuster IPO. SpaceX surged 19% during its market debut after completing a record-breaking $75 billion offering, helping lift sentiment across the sector.

Investors have also been increasingly focused on the long-term economics of satellite networks. Rob Maurer, managing partner at First Principles Group, recently argued that Starship could dramatically reduce deployment costs for satellite operators. According to his analysis, Starship could cut bandwidth deployment costs by 95%. Companies building direct-to-cell networks, Earth-observation constellations and communications infrastructure could all benefit from cheaper access to orbit.

BlueBird Launch Set For June 17

The renewed attention also comes as AST SpaceMobile prepares for its next satellite launch. Last week, the company announced that BlueBird satellites 8, 9 and 10 are scheduled to launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on June 17 from Cape Canaveral.

The next-generation satellites are expected to nearly double the peak data speeds achieved by AST's initial BlueBird satellites, which recently delivered download speeds of 98.9 Mbps directly to standard smartphones. "Our upcoming launch marks another important milestone as we continue advancing the deployment of our space-based cellular broadband network," President Scott Wisniewski said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ levels a week ago amid a 9% jump in message volumes over the past week.

One user called the Japanese update “exciting” and expects ASTS to emerge as a winner from the deal. 

Another user said, “AST SpaceMobile could be awarded $1 billion this month.”

ASTS stock has surged 123% over the past year. 

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