ASTS Vs RKLB: The Market Picked One, Cathie Wood Backed The Other — Which Space Play Won Q2?

• AST SpaceMobile shares rallied 4% after Q2 results, while Rocket Lab edged lower despite delivering stronger headline numbers.
• Wall Street sees 41% upside for RKLB versus 11% for ASTS, with Rocket Lab drawing significantly more bullish analyst ratings.
• Neutron timing concerns weighed on RKLB, though CEO Peter Beck called delay headlines “overblown” and urged investors to focus on achieving the rocket’s 10th flight.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rallied 4% after second-quarter (Q2) results on Tuesday, while Rocket Lab edged lower despite record revenue and above-consensus guidance, prompting Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management to buy the dip. 

Which Space Firm Won The Earnings Battle?

Rocket Lab delivered the stronger quarter on the headline financial and operating metrics, even though AST SpaceMobile won the market’s immediate vote. Rocket Lab’s Q2 revenue surged 62% from the previous year to a record $234.07 million, beating the $230.94 million consensus and exceeding its previous quarterly record by $34 million. Its loss of $0.08 per share, however, was wider than the $0.05 expected.

“Q2 was another fantastic quarter for Rocket Lab, highlighted by record results and massive momentum,” CEO Peter Beck said. Backlog hit a record $2.36 billion, while Rocket Lab said contracts added since quarter-end brought new launch and Space Systems awards entered during Q3 to more than $1 billion.

The company also forecast Q3 revenue of $250 million to $265 million, comfortably above Wall Street’s $235.9 million estimate. It expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million to $23 million as Neutron development spending pressures near-term profitability.

AST SpaceMobile, by comparison, reported Q2 revenue of $31.5 million, missing the $34.4 million consensus. Its loss widened to $0.77 per share from $0.41 a year earlier.

The company nevertheless reaffirmed its 2026 revenue forecast of $150 million to $200 million, compared with analysts’ $164.45 million estimate. CEO Abel Avellan said AST SpaceMobile remains “uniquely positioned to deliver scalable direct-to-device connectivity” through satellites to connect with standard, unmodified smartphones.

Wall Street Backs RKLB, Trims ASTS Targets

BofA lowered its AST SpaceMobile price target to $80 from $95, implying a 12% upside from current levels, and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating.  UBS cut its target to $78 from $80 and retained a ‘Neutral’ rating, indicating a 9% upside.

ASTS’s broader average target of $79.66 represents a 11% upside, according to Koyfin.  Of 13 analysts covering ASTS, one rates it ‘Strong Buy,’ three recommend ‘Buy,’ seven have a ‘Hold,’ one assigns a ‘Sell,’ and one rates it ‘Strong Sell.’

Analysts remained considerably more bullish on Rocket Lab. KeyBanc retained its ‘Overweight’ rating and $135 target, implying 68.7% upside from current levels. The firm called Rocket Lab one of the space sector’s highest-quality companies and said continued execution could produce gains “well in excess” of its target.

Needham reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating and $120 target, representing a 50% upside. The firm raised its 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts but reduced its adjusted EBITDA estimates to account for higher investment. Meanwhile, Citizens maintained its ‘Market Outperform’ rating and $130 target, indicating a 63% upside. The firm said Neutron is becoming increasingly derisked and described the pending Iridium acquisition as the “missing piece” in Rocket Lab’s end-to-end architecture, potentially unlocking a market exceeding $100 billion.

Rocket Lab’s average target of $112.76 implies a 41% upside, per Koyfin. Of 18 covering analysts, three rate RKLB ‘Strong Buy', 11 recommend ‘Buy ’, and four have a ‘Hold.’ 

Over the past year, RKLB has outperformed ASTS, climbing 78% compared with AST SpaceMobile’s 56% gain. 

Cathie Wood Buys RKLB As Neutron Concerns Weigh

ARK purchased 292,873 Rocket Lab shares worth $23.43 million, based on RKLB’s current price, across three funds following the results. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) acquired 200,987 shares worth about $16.08 million, the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) bought 64,785 shares valued at $5.18 million, and the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) added 27,101 shares worth $2.17 million. 

ARK’s space fund (ARKX) also sold 17,216 Iridium Communications shares as Rocket Lab moves toward acquiring the satellite operator. RKLB’s subdued reaction reflected concerns that Neutron’s inaugural launch could slip beyond 2026. Beck acknowledged that the schedule was tightening but pushed back against the most pessimistic interpretation.

“I think probably headlines [were] overblown a little bit,” Beck told Bloomberg. “It’s getting a little bit tighter to get a launch away this year.” Rocket Lab still intends to “push hard” for a maiden flight before year-end. Beck said that investors should look beyond the rocket’s debut toward its ability to achieve commercial scale. “The real question that should be asking is, what about the 10th flight?” he said, explaining that the milestone would demonstrate “scale and cadence and reusability.”

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS And RKLB?

On Stocktwits, retail traders were optimistic about both space stocks, though Rocket Lab attracted stronger interest. Sentiment toward RKLB was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, while ASTS registered ‘bullish’ sentiment alongside ‘high’ chatter.

Rocket Lab’s watcher base grew 1.8% over the past week and 16% over three months, compared with increases of 0.7% and 11%, respectively, for AST SpaceMobile, indicating stronger retail enthusiasm and faster audience growth around RKLB.

One user cautioned that similar share prices mask vastly different valuations, with ASTS valued at about $26 billion versus RKLB’s nearly $50 billion. Another praised Rocket Lab’s strong earnings, consistent execution and growing government business, calling it the “No. 2 public space company.” An ASTS bull, meanwhile, highlighted its market-defying gain and said the stock was waiting to “fly like a Bluebird.” 

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