ASTS Stock Faces Launch Pressure: BlueBird 8-10 Shipment Clock Ticks Ahead Of Earnings Next Week

• Investors are watching whether ASTS can still deliver BlueBird 8-10 within the company’s stated 30-day shipment timeline.
• BofA warned that AST SpaceMobile could fall short of its 45-satellite target by about seven satellites.
• Fiscal AI estimates Q1 revenue of $40 million and a narrower loss of $0.17 per share.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) heads into earnings next week, with investors watching whether the company can still deliver BlueBird 8-10 within its promised 30-day shipment window after last month’s failed BlueBird-7 launch.

ASTS stock declined 7% on Tuesday, logging its third consecutive session of losses. 

BlueBird 8-10 Shipment Countdown

AST SpaceMobile said last month that BlueBird-7 had been placed into a lower-than-planned orbit during Blue Origin’s New Glenn Mission-3 and would eventually de-orbit despite successfully separating from the rocket and powering on. The company said the satellite’s cost is expected to be recovered through insurance.

At the time, AST SpaceMobile said BlueBird 8 through 10 were expected to be ready for shipment in “approximately 30 days.” Tuesday marks day 17 of the timeline, leaving investors focused on whether the company will reiterate or adjust the target during next week’s earnings report. The company continues to target about 45 satellites in orbit by the end of this year, with launches every 1 to 2 months on average.

BlueBird Launch Setback Weighs On ASTS

The BlueBird-7 setback triggered a sharp selloff last month, with ASTS shares tumbling after the company confirmed the satellite would not join its expanding direct-to-smartphone broadband constellation. CEO Abel Avellan said at the time that the launch vehicle’s second stage failed to place the satellite into its intended orbit. BlueBird-7 would have been AST SpaceMobile’s eighth deployed satellite in low Earth orbit.

Despite the setback, the company said production continues through BlueBird-32. BofA called the failed deployment a “negative shock” but said it does not fundamentally alter AST SpaceMobile’s business outlook. However, the brokerage warned that the company could face challenges meeting its revised target of 45 satellites in orbit by this year. Assuming launches every 1 to 2 months and an average of 5.5 satellites per launch, the firm estimates the company could fall short of that target by about 7 satellites. Clear Street also lowered its price target on ASTS, citing expectations of delays in the company’s 45- to 60-satellite targets.

ASTS Q1 Preview

Wall Street expects strong revenue growth from AST SpaceMobile as part of its first-quarter (Q1) earnings report due Monday. Fiscal AI estimates Q1 revenue of $40 million, compared with $3.25 million a year earlier. Analysts expect a loss of $0.17 per share versus a loss of $0.21 last year, while losses before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are estimated at $52.36 million compared with a loss of $39.21 million a year ago.

According to Koyfin data, analysts maintain an average 12-month price target of $86.4 on ASTS shares, implying an upside of 35% from current levels. Among 10 covering analysts, three rate the stock a ‘Buy,’ five rate it a ‘Hold’, and two maintain ‘Strong Sell’ ratings. 

ASTS Faces Fresh Investor Concerns

Beyond the BlueBird timeline, investors are also weighing additional pressures ahead of earnings. Last week, filings showed that Rakuten Mobile, the company’s largest shareholder, sold 5.1 million ASTS shares between April 17 and April 24 under a pre-arranged trading plan. Despite the sale, Rakuten still holds 31 million shares, representing a 11% stake in the company.

AST SpaceMobile also recently faced an FCC setback after regulators dismissed satellite operators' requests for expanded access to portions of the mobile-satellite service spectrum. Satellite analyst Tim Farrar said the ruling could limit AST’s ability to expand into additional higher-frequency spectrum bands. Competition in the direct-to-device satellite market has also intensified, with rivals including SpaceX and Amazon’s Project Kuiper advancing their satellite-to-phone connectivity capabilities. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS has improved to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid a 416% jump in 24-hour message volumes.

One bullish user said, “NO BAD NEWS AND FUNDEMENTALS ARE STILL THE SAME. BUY AND HOLD...REBOUND COMING BEFORE EARNINGS MONDAY..DON'T MISS THIS GOLD OPPORTUNITY!!”

Another user questioned, “How many satellites will they revise there estimate down to from 45?” Meanwhile, a separate user expressed anxiety, saying “day 17 of "shipping in the next 30 days" can this company ever not lie to its investors its absolutely incredible.”

ASTS stock has rocketed 158% over the past year. 

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