Axis Bank Shares Rise On Stable Asset Quality, Golden Crossover Signal More Upside

Shares of Axis Bank rose 3% on Thursday as the street shrugged off the one-time provisioning impact on its bottomline. The private sector lender reported a 26% year-on-year decline in net profit to ₹5,090 crore for the quarter ended September.

Axis Bank was the top Nifty gainer in the opening trade. 

Axis Bank’s total income rose 1% to ₹37,595 crore in the second quarter (Q2), while net interest income grew 2% year-on-year to ₹13,745 crore. Net interest margin stood at 3.73%, compared with 3.8% in the June quarter and 3.99% a year earlier, reflecting the impact of cumulative 100-basis-point rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India this year. 

The bank’s asset quality improved with gross NPAs at 1.46% and net NPAs at 0.44%. Provisions rose 61% year-on-year to ₹3,547 crore, including a one-time ₹1,231 crore standard asset provision linked to discontinued crop loan products. 

CFO Puneet Sharma said the loans are fully secured and the provision will be written back by FY28, as the bank continued to post 12% loan growth and steady deposit expansion.

One-time provision drags profit, asset quality stable

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel said Axis Bank’s profit fell mainly due to the one-time provision for discontinued crop loan products as advised by the RBI. He noted that the provision will be reversed by March 2028 once all loans under the products are closed. 

He added that the bank’s net NPA stood at 0.44%, compared with 0.34% a year earlier, while total income rose marginally.

Chandel said the stock has been in an uptrend since early September, showing strong buying momentum with a gap-up move on October 3. It has since pulled back slightly and is now trading near a key support zone that previously acted as resistance. 

A close above the falling trendline could extend the upward move, while the stock’s position above the 200 exponential moving average (EMA) suggests the long-term trend remains positive.

Technical charts indicate momentum ahead 

SEBI-registered analyst SFP Research said Axis Bank’s stock is consolidating between ₹1,160 and ₹1,140, facing resistance near ₹1,200. On the weekly chart, the firm observed a golden crossover pattern, signaling an underlying uptrend. 

It said a sustained close above ₹1,200 could open the way for upside levels around ₹1,230–₹1,270 and ₹1,340, while a breakdown below ₹1,120 could trigger weakness toward ₹1,050.

SFP Research added that Axis Bank’s fundamentals remain strong, with one of the lowest net NPAs in the sector at 0.44%. The firm cited the bank’s retail strength, digital innovation, and successful integration of the Citi consumer business as growth drivers. 

It said Axis Bank’s digital initiatives, such as “Lock FD” and the UPI gold-backed credit line, are expanding customer reach, while the Burgundy Private segment continues to scale up assets under management.

Axis Bank: Growth outlook & earnings forecasts

SFP Research projects a three-year earnings CAGR of around 9.9%, revenue growth of 11.9%, and return on equity of 14.6%. 

It said Axis Bank’s strong digital franchise, conservative provisioning approach, and solid capital position make it one of the better-positioned private lenders despite short-term margin pressure.

Brokerage Views

HSBC maintained a ‘buy’ rating and raised its target price to ₹1,460, citing strong loan growth and asset quality. Nomura also reiterated a ‘buy’ call with a ₹1,440 target, highlighting robust operations and lower technical slippages despite one-offs. 

Jefferies kept a ‘buy’ rating with a ₹1,430 target, noting profit was ahead of estimates, supported by stable margins and growth in loans and deposits. 

Bernstein maintained an ‘outperform’ rating with a ₹1,250 target, pointing to improving asset quality and lower slippages as early signs of stabilizing stress levels.

What Is The Retail Mood On Stocktwits?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

Axis Bank’s stock has risen 9% so far in 2025.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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