AXSM Stock Is Rising Today After Wall Street’s Positive Stance Despite Mixed Q1 – What's Behind The Optimism?

• Tsai stated that Auvelity’s Q1 sales of $153 million exceeded consensus estimates for major depressive disorder.
• The analyst believes the 2026 revenue estimate of $805 million for Auvelity is achievable, driven in part by a potential label expansion into Alzheimer’s agitation, which could boost sales in the second half of the year.
• Deutsche Bank analyst David Hoang hiked his price target for Axsome, citing a positive outlook for Auvelity’s commercial launch and growth potential.

Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) reported a mixed first quarter on Monday, but analysts on Wall Street remain optimistic about the company’s prospects.

According to TheFly, Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai hiked the firm’s price target for Axsome to $275 from $245 while keeping a ‘Buy’ rating. The new price target implies an upside potential of nearly 21% from current levels.

Axsome Therapeutics shares were up more than 10% in Monday morning’s trade. AXSM was among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing.

Why Is Wall Street Bullish?

Tsai stated that Auvelity’s Q1 sales of $153 million exceeded consensus estimates for major depressive disorder. The analyst believes the 2026 revenue estimate of $805 million for Auvelity is achievable, driven in part by a potential label expansion into Alzheimer’s agitation, which could boost sales in the second half of the year.

Auvelity is Axsome’s treatment for agitation associated with dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease. Auvelity received a “clean label” approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last week, meaning that Auvelity will not carry a warning for increased risk of death in elderly patients with dementia.

According to analysts at TD Cowen, this differentiates Auvelity from the only other approved therapy for ADA, Rexulti.

Deutsche Bank analyst David Hoang raised the firm’s price target on Axsome Therapeutics to $281 from $245 and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating. Hoang cited a positive outlook for Auvelity’s commercial launch and growth potential as the reason for the price target hike.

H.C. Wainwright analysts raised the firm’s price target on Axsome Therapeutics to $270 from $250 and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating, citing the FDA approval of Auvelity.

What Is Auvelity?

Auvelity is an oral therapy targeting NMDA and sigma-1 receptors, having been approved in the U.S. for major depressive disorder and, more recently, for agitation associated with Alzheimer’s-related dementia.

The company stated that about 223,000 prescriptions were written in Q1 2026, up 35% year-on-year and in line with fourth-quarter (Q4) levels. Axsome stated that payer coverage reached roughly 86% overall, including 78% in commercial plans and full coverage in Medicare and Medicaid.

Following its FDA approval last week for Alzheimer’s agitation, the drug is set for a commercial launch in June. The company has also completed an expansion of its sales force to around 630 representatives, targeting a wide range of prescribers to support growth in both depression and Alzheimer’s-related use.

Axsome’s Mixed Q1

Axsome Therapeutics’ Q1 results came in mixed on Monday. The company reported a loss of $1.26 per share, while Wall Street expected a loss of $0.86 per share, according to Fiscal.ai data.

Axsome’s revenue came in at $191.2 million, edging past Wall Street’s estimates of $190.7 million.

According to Koyfin data, the average 12-month price target for AXSM is $235.85, implying an upside of nearly 4% from current levels. Of the 20 analysts covering the stock, 19 have a ‘Buy’ or a ‘Strong Buy’ rating, while one has a ‘Hold’ recommendation.

How Did Retail Traders React?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Axsome Therapeutics trended in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels at the time of writing.

One bullish user expects Auvelity sales to reach at least $1.2 billion by the end of this year.

Another user thinks that big pharmaceutical companies are more willing than ever to acquire Axsome Therapeutics.

AXSM stock is up 24% year-to-date and 102% over the past 12 months. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (VTI) is up 27% over the past 12 months, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up 38%.

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