Carnival Stock Slips Premarket Ahead Of Q1 Earnings: Analyst Expects Solid Performance Despite Higher Fuel Costs

• On Tuesday, Barclays lowered CCL’s price target to $36 from $37, but said it expects a "solid" Q1 performance.
• TD Cowen, however, said Carnival's earnings call may be a negative catalyst on a large earnings cut and possible yield cut.
•  Retail sentiment for Carnival shifted to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Bearish’ three months ago.

Shares of Carnival (CCL) fell about 1% in early premarket trading on Friday, ahead of the cruise line operator’s fiscal first-quarter results. 

The company's adjusted sales are expected to rise 5.65% to $6.1 billion for the three-month period ended February, according to a consensus estimate from Koyfin.

Adjusted earnings per share are seen at $0.19, while cash from operations is expected to be 42% higher than last year at $1.3 billion.

Earnings Expectations Take Center Stage

On Tuesday, Barclays said that it expects CCL to deliver “solid” Q1 results and yield guidance stability for the year, despite the macro environment, according to data from The Fly.

Barclays noted that fuel-price related share sell-offs are “generally good medium-term entry-points for Cruise." The firm maintained CCL’s ‘overweight’ rating but cut the price target to $36 from $37.

However, TD Cowen added that Carnival's earnings call could be a “negative catalyst” if the company announces a cut to its earnings and yield.TD Cowen maintained CCL’s buy rating but cut price target to $33 from $38, as part of a preview of the Q1 results.

Meanwhile, Truist maintained a ‘buy’ rating on CCL but reduced its price target to $30 from $34, citing a broader research note on Cruise Lines. Truist added that while the Wave Season had been “decent’ geopolitical events are a reminder of sector risk and valuations.

How did Carnival Perform Last Quarter?

CCL reported fourth quarter revenue of $6.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34. Revenue slightly missed the $6.37 billion estimate, while EPS beat the $0.25 estimate, according to data from Fiscal AI.

CEO Josh Weinstein said in the fourth-quarter earnings report that results beat forecasts. The CEO expects the momentum to be carried into 2026, with double-digit earnings growth and an over 13.5% return on invested capital.

Weinstein highlighted that CCL's 2026 occupancy is at its highest, with about two-thirds booked at higher prices.

What Are Retail Traders Saying About CCL?

On Stockwits, the sentiment among retail investors improved but held in the 'neutral' territory.

One bullish user said “$CCL The day of reckoning, whereby CCL will smash ER,”

Some remained cautious: “$CCL no way it can meet guidance with the price of oil up. Oh and hocan they give a decent guidance not knowing what’s going to happen in the next couple months?”

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