Chili’s Bet It Could Do ‘Value Meals’ Better Than McD & Wendy’s — Its Stock Shows It Was Right

• In its Q1 results, Brinker said Chili's same-store sales were up 21.4%, outperforming the casual dining industry by 1,650 basis points. 
• Placer.ai said that chains like Chili's have shown that an array of deals, such as the 3 For Me and the Triple Dipper Deal, have helped the casual dining brand significantly outpace the broader dining category for more than a year.
• Earlier in 2025, Brinker International began a prototype for Chili’s to roll out the redesign across 100 locations annually.

American fast-food chains are scrambling to lure back cautious diners, and it’s no surprise that “value meal” has become the industry’s favorite buzzword under the current circumstances. From McDonald’s to Burger King, discounted bundles and stripped-down meals are being rolled out in the hope of drawing back the price-sensitive customers who are scratching their chins on the sidelines.

But not everyone is adopting the very same playbook, least of all Chili’s. In a pointed jab this week, the casual dining chain took to X with a message that cut through the marketing noise: “It’s finally clocking to y’all that there’s no value in ‘value meals’ #mcscammed.” 

The post was a thinly veiled dig at McDonald’s — as well as Wendy’s and Burger King — which have acknowledged that lower- and middle-income consumers are pulling back as higher prices stretch household budgets. “Reminder that you can get a burger with fries, bottomless chips and salsa, and a drink for $10.99 at Chili’s,” the casual dining restaurant said in the post.

Wall Street analysts have noted that Chili’s has boosted growth for Brinker, which has, in turn, propelled its shares to jump nearly 15% over the last three months. In November, brokerage Freedom Capital noted that Chili's is “still in the early innings of its transformation,” but believes the brand can continue to gain market share given ongoing sales initiatives, increased marketing, improved customer service, and a strong value proposition.

Brinker’s Growth, More A Chili’s Play

During the first quarter results in late October, Brinker said Chili's same-store sales were up 21.4%, outperforming the casual dining industry by 1,650 basis points. The company said the quarterly sales result was driven by a 13% increase in traffic versus a year ago.

“Chili's continues to grow sales across all households of all income levels, and while others in the restaurant industry are seeing households with lower income pull back, we are seeing just the opposite,” CEO Kevin Hochman said.

“Our customer base is very representative of the U.S. consumer across all income cohorts, but our cohort growing the fastest is actually now households with income under $60,000,” he added.

Brinker has been trying to take Chili’s back to its roots and has started a “reimage program” for the chain with initiatives ramping up for 2026. The company said its primary focus will be on guest-facing repairs and maintenance, followed by a smaller reimage program, before shifting gears to new unit growth. 

Earlier in 2025, the company began working on a prototype for Chili’s to roll out the redesign across 100 locations annually. Brinker has been heavily investing in the redesigns and also operational improvements in the Kitchen to make Chili’s a more appealing place for customers.

How Are Fast Food Chains In The US Faring?

Decline in traffic at fast-food chains has become notable. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said on its last earnings call that the company continues to “see a bifurcated consumer base, with QSR traffic from lower-income consumers declining nearly double digits in the third quarter, a trend that's persisted for nearly two years.”

According to Placer.ai, McDonald’s reintroduced its “Extra Value Meals” on Sept. 8, 2025, but despite substantial promotional support, the rollout produced only a modest uptick in visits that week. The data firm in a December data set noted that while traffic improved slightly in the weeks that followed, analysis of recent foot traffic trends shows that the real inflection points came from experiential activations such as the Boo Bucket for Halloween and The Grinch Meal during the holidays.

Even at Burger King, Placer.ai noted that the rollout of the limited-time Monster Menu generated a stronger visit lift than either Treat Week or Perks Week, both of which focused on giveaways and discounts.

Chili’s Seeing Strong Traffic

“Chains like Chili's have shown that an array of deals – such as the 3 For Me and the Triple Dipper Deal – has helped the casual dining brand significantly outpace the wider dining category for more than a year,” Placer.ai said.

Placer.ai said that consumers may be watching their wallets, but price alone doesn’t determine where they choose to eat. Chili’s success shows that a compelling value platform can be a powerful differentiator in full-service dining, where the experience is already baked into the visit, the data firm added.

It noted that the same strategy doesn’t automatically translate to the quick-service restaurant landscape, where affordability is expected, and price-based promotions blur together quickly. 

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on Brinker International jumped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ territory a week ago, with message volumes at a ‘normal’ level, according to data from Stocktwits.

Sentiment on McDonald’s improved to ‘neutral’ from ‘extremely bearish’ a week ago. In contrast, on Burger King’s parent Restaurant Brands International, retail sentiment remained unchanged in the ‘bearish’ territory for the same period.

Shares of Brinker International have gained 8.5% in the last 12 months, while McDonald’s stock and Restaurant Brands shares have risen 4% each year-to-date.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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