Circle Stock Jumps After Clear Street Upgrade Flagging Nearly 10% Upside

• Circle shares rose over 7% on Monday after Clear Street upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ and raised its price target to $136.
• Analysts pointed to tokenization growth, prediction markets, and regulatory clarity as potential drivers of stablecoin demand.
• Mizuho reported on Friday that USDC overtook USDT in adjusted year-to-date transaction volume, with about $2.2 trillion in volume versus $1.3 trillion for Tether.

Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) rose more than 7% on Monday morning after Clear Street upgraded the stock and analysts pointed to several factors that could result in the firm’s next leg up.

Clear Street raised Circle's stock price target from $92 to $136, flagging a potential upside of nearly 10% from current levels. It also changed its rating from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’. The analysts said that five factors could speed up the adoption of Circle’s stablecoin USDC and its market share, even though the wider crypto market is volatile. 

This included rising tokenization, growing prediction markets, instability in the Middle East, and the merging of agentic AI with programmable stablecoins, which analysts think could create structural demand for USDC. 

Analysts Bet On Regulatory Clarity

Clear Street also mentioned regulatory clarity as a possible tailwind, pointing out that President Donald Trump publicly backed the CLARITY Act, which aims to make the rules for the digital asset industry clearer.

Monness Crespi stated last week that the economics of stablecoin distribution might have been drastically altered by a compromise version of the CLARITY bill that was rejected. This version would have restricted stablecoin yields to peer-to-peer payments rather than idle balances. Monness Crespi kept a ‘Sell’ rating on Coinbase (COIN) with a $120 target and a ‘Buy’ rating on Circle (CRCL) with a $125 price target.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around CRCL remained in the ‘bullish’ territory, while chatter around it dipped from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ over the past day. 

Circle's stock is still well below its previous highs. According to market data, CRCL is still about 52% below its peak from the past year. 

According to Koyfin data, the stock is currently approaching consensus expectations. The average analyst price target for CRCL is approximately $125.9, which is only marginally higher than the current trading price, indicating that Wall Street anticipates little near-term growth unless new catalysts appear.

USDC Volumes Overtake USDT 

In a research note published on Friday,  Mizuho analysts said Circle’s USDC had surpassed Tether’s USDT in adjusted year-to-date transaction volume for the first time since 2019, signaling a potential shift in stablecoin usage patterns.

According to Mizuho, transaction volume is a more meaningful indicator of real-world usage than market capitalization, noting that the stablecoin “winner” will likely be the one most widely used for everyday transactions rather than simply the largest by supply.

Read also: Crypto’s Latest Bankruptcy: What Went Wrong At Blockfills

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