Could SoFi Stock Finally Be The Next S&P 500 Addition? Here’s What Retail Thinks

• To be considered for inclusion, a company must have an unadjusted market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion and positive GAAP earnings over the past four quarters, among other requirements. 
• SoFi Technologies has a current market capitalization of $23.40 billion. 
• On the profitability front, SoFi reported its tenth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability in the first quarter of 2026.

SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI) jumped onto the retail radar overnight ahead of Monday, as investors discussed the potential for the financial company to join the benchmark S&P 500 index.

Prediction market traders on Kalshi currently assign SoFi roughly a 10% chance of joining the S&P 500 this quarter, trailing Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Reddit, and Pure Storage.

Meanwhile, Stocktwits users also believe that an inclusion in the benchmark index is “VERY possible.”

Shares of the company jumped nearly 4% in overnight trading.

S&P 500 Inclusion Criteria

The S&P 500 tracks 500 of the country's leading publicly traded companies. To be considered for inclusion, a company must satisfy several requirements, including an unadjusted market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion, a float-adjusted market capitalization representing no less than 50% of the index's minimum company-level market cap threshold, and positive GAAP earnings both in the latest reported quarter and on a cumulative basis over the previous four quarters.

However, it is worth noting that the index is considering revising its index inclusion rules to fast-track inclusion of “megacap” companies such as SpaceX and OpenAI that are expected to go public this year. Under the proposed changes, new public companies could qualify for S&P 500 inclusion after just six months of listing rather than the current 12-month requirement. The existing profitability rules are also likely to be waived entirely for companies that qualify as megacaps.

SoFi Technologies has a current market capitalization of $23.40 billion. On the profitability front, SoFi reported its tenth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, posting GAAP net income of $166.7 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.12 for the first quarter (Q1) of 2026.

The company’s shares ended more than 7% higher on Friday, building on Thursday’s rally after it announced the launch of SoFiUSD, the first stablecoin issued by a U.S. national bank on a banking platform. The company’s stock climbed over 13% in May, clocking its best monthly performance since August of last year.

What’s Retail Saying About SoFi?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SOFI stock was in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory amid ‘high’ message volumes at the time of writing.

One bullish user said that SoFi had a “MAJOR catalyst” coming up with the S&P 500 rebalancing. “SoFi inclusion VERY possible. Shorts near all time highs. This is POTENT!” they said.

Another retail user said, “My guess is sofi will be in the s&p 500 at the end of the year.”

However, a third user expressed caution, saying, “doesn’t seem like SoFi has a good chance of being enlisted in sp 500. Too close to the market cap cut off.”

SoFi Q1 Results Snapshot

For the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, the financial services firm posted a 43% growth in revenue, which came in at $1.1 billion and above Wall Street’s estimates. SoFi posted earnings of $0.12 per share, which were in line with consensus estimates.

The company also added a record 1.1 million new members, bringing the total to 14.7 million, up 35% from a year ago. Despite strong results, SoFi’s technology platform revenue fell 27% to $75.1 million, primarily due to a major client's departure from the platform before the end of 2025.

For the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, SoFi expects to report adjusted net revenue growth of roughly 30% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 30%.

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