Disney Is Betting Big On ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ — But History Shows Blockbuster Openings Don’t Guarantee A Stock Pop

• Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third in the famed Avatar franchise, grossed $88 million in the opening weekend.
• Although many have become top grossers later, Disney’s blockbusters have had little impact on the company’s stock just after their release.
• Disney is grappling with slowing sales growth as it looks to revive the business. 

Disney has long leaned on “Avatar,” the world’s highest-grossing film franchise directed by James Cameron, to drive growth, but that once-reliable formula appears to be losing steam.

The company’s shares were down marginally at Monday’s market open, as its latest installment, “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” opened to a lukewarm box office reception. 

The movie grossed $88 million on the opening weekend, falling short of analysts’ $110 million to $125 million expectations, according to CNBC. The figure is also below the $134 million opening three-day collection of its prequel, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which was released in theaters in December 2022.

What’s more, past trends show that even some of the well-received blockbusters have done little for the company’s stock, at least just immediately after their release. The Disney stock slid 4% in the week after the release of “Avengers: Endgame” and 2.3% in the week after the release of “Avatar: The Way of Water.” They are the second and third-top-grossing movies of all time globally, respectively.

To be sure, the past Avatar movies have been slow starters. The original “Avatar,” which came out in 2009, grossed only $77 million in its opening weekend, only to become one of the top-grossing films of all time later, with a lifetime total of $2.9 billion. Interestingly, it overtook “Avengers: Endgame” as the top-grossing movie of all time in March 2021, thanks to a fresh theatrical release in China. In 2025, Disney’s “Zootopia 2” and “Lilo & Stitch” were the second and third-top-grossing movies for the year.

Still, a softer-than-expected response for the opening weekend of “Avatar: Fire and Ash” comes at a rather challenging time for Disney. The conglomerate is working to revive all units, including streaming, films, and TV, as its sales growth declines (see chart). Disney’s stock is nearly flat this year, compared to the 16.2% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index.

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for DIS was ‘bearish,’ unchanged from the previous day, although some users were ‘bullish’ about the latest Avatar movie. 

“While that represents a downturn from Avatar: The Way of Water's opening earnings in 2022, each entry in the franchise has proven an enduring success at the box office,” said one user, citing an article on Entertainment Weekly. 

"With a massive $345M global opening over 3 days for Avatar, Disney now has cemented what will be the top 3 highest-grossing US-made films globally for 2025, all which will surpass $1 Billion," said another user, citing, Zootopia, Lilo & Stitch and Avatar 3. "A repeat of achieving the same feat last year of having the 3 top-grossing films."

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