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Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, said on Monday that he sees the S&P 500 index soaring to 8,250 by the end of 2026, driven by robust earnings and a resilient U.S. economy.
During an interview with CNBC, the economist raised his 2026 target for the S&P 500 from 7,700, noting that although he has remained bullish on the market, he now believes he was not bullish enough.
“The earnings estimates of analysts have been phenomenal. I’ve never seen anything like it. The first quarter earnings season, which we’re finishing up now, has turned out to be gangbusters,” Yardeni said.
The S&P 500 index has rallied 8% so far, and Yardeni’s target implies a further upside of more than 11% from current levels.
The economist highlighted that for the calendar year 2026 as a whole, analysts are estimating an earnings growth of about 23%, which he thinks is “extraordinary.”
“The key to all this is, don’t underestimate the resilience of the economy, the resilience of the consumer. If that continues to be the case, the same goes for earnings,” he added.
Yardeni stated that cash flows and profits of companies are at a record high thanks to a resilient U.S. and global economy.
“We pay too much attention to Washington… we’ve done remarkably well despite Washington. The same thing can be said globally. More and more countries around the world,” he said.
Yardeni also pointed to infrastructure spending under the Biden administration and deregulation efforts under the Trump administration as the two key factors fueling economic growth.
He also stated that the U.S. is experiencing a productivity surge now instead of wage inflation. He added that the productivity gains are helping keep inflation under control despite crude oil prices soaring due to the Iran war.
Yardeni added that on balance, AI will add jobs, not take them away. He also highlighted that the labor market is improving and that it is at an equilibrium currently.
Yardeni highlighted that rich “baby boomers” who have a cumulative net worth of $89 trillion as one of the drivers of the surge in equities.
“We’ve got a lot of retiring baby boomers and they’re rich,” he said, while noting that many of them have paid off their mortgages, leaving them with money to spend and invest.
U.S. equities declined in Monday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was down 0.14%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.12%; and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) declined 0.11%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&P 500 ETF was in the ‘bullish’ territory.
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