Elon Musk Says Rivals Still Won’t License Tesla’s FSD, Fund Manager Says They Never Will

• Musk has floated licensing FSD for years.
• In 2024, the CEO voiced optimism for a licensing deal later in the year. 
• However, in late 2025, the CEO said that rival automakers “don’t want it.”

Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, used a Tuesday exchange on X to restate a view he has held for long: legacy automakers will not license Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.

The comment landed after CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla’s long-standing offer for licensing FSD still has no takers.

A Prediction Restated

Black quoted his own December 2024 post and wrote that, unlike charging, legacy OEMs will build unsupervised autonomy themselves because it is “table stakes” for remaining in the auto business.

The Future Fund managing partner’s stance has tightened over time. In August 2023, he listed an FSD licensing deal as a possible Tesla catalyst, saying some foreign makers lagged and might sign despite brand and liability risk. In December 2024, after BMW called FSD “very impressive,” he said one deal would pull others in and that analysts would then model the revenue—though he would not bake it into a price target until it was real.

He has also said that letting rival cars use Tesla chargers is external; handing Tesla the driving stack would make FSD “the central nervous system of the car.”

What Musk Has Said

Musk has floated licensing for years. On Tesla’s July 2023 earnings call, he said the company was “very open” to licensing FSD software and hardware. In 2024, he said that the company is in talks with one major automaker and voiced optimism for a deal later that year. Ford CEO Jim Farley has previously said that talks happened but noted Waymo as the stronger option.

In November 2025, Musk’s tone changed: he had offered FSD, “they don’t want it,” and occasional talks involved tiny five-year programs with “unworkable requirements.”

Meanwhile, Tesla Is Scaling FSD

Tesla has most recently said that about 1.48 million of its customers worldwide have paid FSD subscriptions as of June 30, up 16% from the end of the first quarter. The company also operates robotaxis deployed with FSD in certain parts of Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.

However, the software name is a misnomer for customer vehicles and requires active driver supervision. U.S. auto safety regulator NHTSA is running two large open probes covering millions of Tesla vehicles. One engineering analysis examines whether crashes in sun glare, fog, and dust conditions can overwhelm Tesla’s camera-only design; it cites incidents including a fatality. A second inquiry reviews reports of FSD running red lights or traveling the wrong way, some of which ended in injury crashes.

How Did TSLA Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock improved from ‘extremely bearish’ to ‘bearish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at ‘low’ levels.

TSLA stock has fallen 16% year-to-date. 

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