Gold Surges To Fresh Record Highs On US-China Tensions: Analyst Reportedly Says Yellow Metal Could Top $5,000

Gold prices continued to surge to new highs on Thursday amid persisting trade tensions between the U.S. and China and expectations of two more interest rate cuts in 2025.

Spot gold prices climbed to a new high of $4,267 per troy ounce, surging by 1.4%. Gold futures maturing in December gained nearly 2% to rise to $4,283.

Analysts at ING Think pointed to the back and forth between President Donald Trump and the Chinese administration, which threatened to retaliate against the Trump administration’s tariff hike proposal.

“Gold prices reached another record in the early Thursday trading session amid surging bets over a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising trade tensions between the US and China,” the firm said in its latest note.

If the U.S. and China fail to resolve their trade dispute, prices of the safe-haven asset could rise further, said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA, according to a Reuters report, while noting that short-term pullbacks are likely to be temporary.

“Gold's trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around U.S.-China. If no deal is reached between the U.S.-China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5000/oz barrier,” Vawda said, according to the report.

Analysts at ANZ now forecast gold prices to reach $4,400 an ounce by the end of the year, while expecting the yellow metal to peak around $4,600 by June 2026, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. The firm stated that despite the comparisons to the 1980s peak, the current surge in gold prices is driven by structural drivers, suggesting that these higher prices are likely to be sustained.

In a Bloomberg interview, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for calm amid U.S.-China trade tensions. “Our message to everybody is: be calm. And to China: be careful, do not provoke other countries,” she said.

Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was up 1.34% at the time of writing, while the iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU) was up 1.39%. The GLD and IAU ETFs have both surged more than 62% year-to-date, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the two ETFs trending in the ‘extremely bullish’ and ‘bullish’ territories, respectively.

Also See: Fed's Miran Says US Is 'Probably' Set For Three 25 Bps Rate Cuts This Year: Report

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