Gold To $4,000? Fidelity Thinks It’s Possible By 2026 On These Catalysts

Gold prices could reach $4,000 by the end of next year, driven by interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, and an expansion of central bank holdings of bullion, according to Fidelity International.

Spot gold prices have rallied over 25% this year, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s uncertain trade policies have cast a shadow over global economic growth amid ongoing conflicts, which have boosted safe-haven flows. However, progress made on several trade agreements has put downward pressure on the bullion in the past few weeks.

According to a Bloomberg News report, Fidelity maintained its bullish stance on the yellow metal, with some cross-asset portfolios boosting their holdings recently as prices eased from an all-time high above $3,500 an ounce in April.

“The rationale for that was that we saw a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,” Multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson reportedly said before adding that some funds had as much as doubled their 5% allocation over the past year. He also noted that funds may have looked to diversify their holdings as August is considered a weaker time for the market.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was ‘bullish’ at the time of writing. Spot gold prices marginally edged lower to $3,312.66 per ounce at 11.43 p.m. ET.

Samson also said that while recent trade agreements have averted a “doomsday scenario,” the U.S. is heading toward a 15% tariff rate on imports, which represents approximately 11% of the American economy. “That’s a pretty decent tax hike. You’d expect it to slow the economy,” he said, according to the report.

If the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, the dovish faction within the U.S. central bank would likely gain greater sway in policy decisions, Samson noted, as tepid growth tends to lead to a softening of the dollar.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — who has been relentlessly attacked by Trump for refusing to cut interest rates — will probably be replaced by someone “more amenable” to lower borrowing costs next May, he said. Further widening of the U.S. fiscal deficit and increased gold purchases by central banks will also boost prices, he added.

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