COF Capital One Financial Corp.

A few to keep eyes on this week: $COF: Chart shows continued uptrend for the short term, but if you’ve been paying attention, you’ll note $JPM had a 5% swing to the negative on their recent ER. JPM has the pleasure of offsetting any credit default concerns with their massive investment banking and asset management portfolios. $COF -> not so lucky. They have none of the latter, and they manage a massive portfolio of sub-prime and near-prime credit cards and loans-> Credit default % rising quickly, and because COF specializes in the bottom third of the credit/consumer demographic + coupled with their Discover merger, the effects will be massively amplified. Chart shows continued uptrend, likely eod Monday v Tuesday before close will be peak. $210 is the near term ceiling in my mind, but I suspect should start adding puts when the price nears the ma50 at the $207 range. I believe we see it drop/test the weekly ma200 at $160 with ER on Tuesday initiating that downtrend. I expect that $160 to land sometime in the next 2-4 weeks. Could play this for the short or long term. $VLO: I absolutely love the company. Oil prices are surging, and VLO ER Thursday is prior to open. If you caught my video, I expect a downtrend very soon in WTI/Brent. ER is likely to show some impressive numbers, however, and I think it retests recent ATH one more time before dropping alongside oil. Look for a retest of $460 in the runup to Thursday. Next week, however? We shall see. $AXP Has shown resilience, but I am expecting increased mention/fears of credit defaults to continue seeping into the narrative here, as well. In the runup to ER this week, I believe that it retests the ma200 day at $326. I would not, however, roll the dice and hold a call position into Friday ER for the reason I just mentioned. The risk isn’t worth it. NFA as always.

$COF: held a 360 Savings account anytime Sept 18, 2019 to June 16, 2025? You are in the $425M settlement, paid only to the primary holder. No form needed, but the June appeal could delay checks by over a year. Open Class Actions.

$COF Reports Q3 after the close Tuesday. Zacks consensus is 5.45 dollars in EPS on 16.11 billion dollars of revenue, EPS down 8.4% from a year ago even with revenue up 4.9%. The split underneath is kinda odd. Interchange fees are modeled at 2.23 billion dollars, up 23.3%, with the Discover deal and card usage doing most of that work. Net interest income is only modeled up 2.5% to 12.71 billion dollars. Credit is modeled better, not worse. Net charge-offs at 2.9% vs 3.2% a year ago, card charge-offs at 4.1% vs 4.6%. The EPS decline is coming from provisions, marketing and tech spend, with the efficiency ratio seen at 56.4% vs 53.8%.

$COF: one detail helps Capital One's deceased-reporting class: court-approved fees are paid separately, not deducted from the $2.4M fund that splits equally. No form, and no payment date yet. Open Class Actions.

$COF: who is in the $425M 360 Savings deal? Anyone who held that account Sept. 18, 2019 to June 16, 2025. No claim form, payments automatic, but the June 18 appeal has delayed them with no new date. Open Class Actions.

$COF is ranked #12 in financial services balanced. I used Stock Meadow’s scoring model to review the scores. What do you think?

$COF Major run coming My trading agent pulled this one for me. She's good, like 90% of me..

$COF card losses fell in Q3 and it wasn't recoveries. Gross charge-offs down $409M vs Q2, recoveries up only $28M. Fewer people actually going bad. I think that's bullish.

$COF The debt is still there but who cares if they are generating cash. They can service it. Q3 will show if they are on track. The old RMTG needed dilution. This one is paying its own way

$COF delinquencies went up 28bp from Q2 to Q3, which looked bad until I checked. They rose Q2 to Q3 every year since 2021, and SYF and JPM card saw the same thing this quarter. Reads seasonal to me. Leaning bullish.

$COF beat last night. Adjusted EPS $6.69 vs $5.50 expected. The part I like is credit. Net charge-off rate fell to 2.73% from 3.23% last quarter and they released $225M of reserves. 30+ day delinquencies did tick up to 3.41% from 3.13%, so I want to see that next quarter. Still down about 17% YTD before the after-hours pop. Leaning bullish.

$COF Q3 adjusted EPS came in at 6.69 dollars vs about 5.50 expected, GAAP at 5.61. Revenue was 16.34 billion dollars, basically in line. Credit is the cleaner part. Net charge-off rate fell to 2.73%, down 50bp from Q2 and 43bp from a year ago, and the quarter still had a 225 million dollar reserve release. Card charge-offs fell to 4.01% from 4.71% in Q2. NIM rose 40bp to 8.41% and pre-provision earnings rose 10% sequentially to 7.5 billion dollars, even with Discover and Brex integration costs in the GAAP numbers.

$COF (Capital One, the card and auto lender now integrating Discover) cut its Q3 2026 net charge-off rate to 2.73% from 3.23% in Q2, as net charge-offs fell to $3.1B from $3.6B. Q3 net income rose to $3.5B from $3.0B on higher revenue, lower costs; provision fell only $73M as a smaller reserve release offset lower charge-offs. Market value about $123.64B at $201.545 (15:59 ET, Oct 20, 2026). Against it: the 30+ day performing delinquency rate rose to 3.18% from 2.91%, still under 3.29% a year ago. Earnings call 5:00 PM ET Oct 20; replay through Nov 3.

$COF Q3 '26 Earnings Results & Recap • Reported GAAP EPS of $6.69 up 12.44% YoY • Reported revenue of $16.31B up 5.46% YoY