Government Shutdown Could Prevent October CPI Release: White House

• According to a post by U.S. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on X, the October CPI data may not be released.
• The White House reporotedly said that the BLS could not collect price surveys during the shutdown, making accurate inflation reporting challenging. 
• The delay could impact Fed policy decisions and market expectations.

The White House has stated on Friday that the U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. 

According to a post on X by U.S. Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said it is “likely” that there will be no October inflation report. She added that the lack of data will “leave businesses, markets, families and the Federal Reserve in disarray.”

A report by Bloomberg added that the White House said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), responsible for compiling the CPI, has been unable to collect new price information since the shutdown began on October 1. 

Challenges Ahead

This disruption raises concerns about the accuracy and timeliness of the upcoming inflation report, scheduled for release in November. Moreover, without the October data, the Federal Reserve may face challenges in assessing current economic conditions, potentially impacting its monetary policy decisions.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 96.7% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

September Inflation Report Gives Markets A Boost

The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3%, both lower than expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month over month, with the annual rate at 3%, also below forecasts.

The cooler-than-expected inflation data led to a surge in stocks, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday high of 6801.20 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching 47,156.73. The Nasdaq Composite hit a high of 23,221.76 as of the time of writing.

ETFs tracking the major indices were in the green at market open on Friday. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up 0.79%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) gained 0.87%, and the Nasdaq-100 tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) moved 0.98% higher. SPY and QQQ were among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing. Retail sentiment on the platform around both tickers QQQ improved to ‘bearish’ from ‘extremely bearish’ territory over the past day. 

Read also: BTC Price Climbs As Investors Await CPI, Trade Talks Between Trump And Xi

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