How High Can S&P 500 Go? Prediction Markets Reveal Bets On August And Year-End Targets

• A separate Polymarket prediction on where the S&P 500 (SPX) will finish in 2026 showed traders assigning the highest probability (29%) to the index ending above 8,000. 
• On Kalshi, the prediction market assigned a 91.7% probability that the index will reach 7,800 or higher in 2026, while the odds of hitting 8,000 or above stood at 72.8%.
• Ed Yardeni, economist and the president of Yardeni Research, said in an interview with CNBC that his year-end S&P 500 target of 8,250 now appears increasingly conservative. 

The benchmark S&P 500 index soared to a new record on Tuesday, notching 7,736.52 at close as earnings momentum fueled the index higher. 

However, retail investors think that the index has a lot more room to run by the end of August. According to a poll from Barchart on X, 53.7% of the 1,740 who voted believe the index will notch 8,000 points by month-end, implying an increase of about 3.4% from current levels.

A similar Polymarket prediction that sought to gauge where the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, will end in August showed traders were most bullish on the ETF rising above $780, with an 89% implied probability. The next most likely outcome was a move above $790 at 49%, while the odds of SPY climbing above $800 stood at 28%. SPY last closed at $771.33; the targets imply gains of about 1.1%, 2.4%, and 3.7%, respectively.

What’s The S&P 500 Target For Year-End?

A separate Polymarket prediction on where the S&P 500 (SPX) will finish in 2026 showed traders assigning the highest probability (29%) to the index ending above 8,000. 

The next most likely outcomes were a finish between 7,000 and 7,500 and 7,500 and 8,000, each with 21% odds. 

On Kalshi, a similar prediction found that traders were even more bullish on the S&P 500's upside this year. The prediction market assigned a 91.7% probability that the index will reach 7,800 or higher in 2026, while the odds of hitting 8,000 or above stood at 72.8%. The probability of the benchmark climbing to 8,200 or higher was 29.2%, followed by 17.7% for 8,400, 12.9% for 8,600, 11.3% for 8,800, and 6% for 9,000 or higher.

Experts Are Reconsidering Their S&P 500 Targets

Ed Yardeni, economist and the president of Yardeni Research, said in an interview with CNBC that his year-end S&P 500 target of 8,250 now appears increasingly conservative, with the index only about 6.5% away, highlighting a “fabulous earnings momentum” amid a “resilient” economy. 

In a separate blog, he said, “The economy is doing very well, and earnings are reflecting that S&P 500 forward earnings is up more than 30% y/y, while the ISM M-PMI climbed to a four-year high in July (chart). Historically, stronger manufacturing activity has been associated with stronger earnings growth.”

Stocktwits Retail View On S&P 500

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment on SPY improved from ‘bearish’ to ‘neutral’ over 24 hours. 

One user said, “$SPY 800 coming sooner than expected.”

Meanwhile, retail sentiment on iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) was bullish at the time of writing. 

The S&P 500 is up nearly 13% this year. 

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