India's IT sector poised to cross $400 billion by 2030 on AI-driven outsourcing boom: Bessemer Venture Partners

India’s $264 billion information technology sector could surge past $400 billion by 2030 as artificial intelligence reshapes global outsourcing, according to Silicon Valley venture capital firm Bessemer Venture Partners.

The firm’s latest AI Services Roadmap Report suggests that AI will not disrupt India’s IT industry but rather drive its next phase of growth.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Nithin Kaimal, COO and Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, said the confidence in this projection stems from how AI is accelerating the evolution of outsourcing. “If you look at it from a five or ten-year perspective, outsourcing started with the most basic activities like chat support or call centres and then over time progressed to more complex activities such as order-to-cash and procure-to-pay,” he said. “What has changed with AI coming in is that there is now, even in these early days, a big step-change in the complexity of tasks that can be done either by software or with a combination of software and smart people.”

Kaimal believes that AI will unlock a new wave of complex, high-value outsourcing opportunities. “A lot of things traditionally considered too difficult or complicated to outsource — involving cross-functional coordination, complex problem-solving, and interaction with multiple suppliers and customers — can gradually be managed by AI as the tools improve,” he added.

According to Bessemer, this shift will create an opening for a new generation of AI-first companies alongside legacy IT players such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro. Kaimal said enterprises across sectors are under pressure from their boards and investors to adopt AI to boost efficiency and profitability. As a result, global clients are diversifying their outsourcing partners. “They know AI is a new technology. The incumbents have a good shot at it, but buyers are willing to experiment with cutting-edge founders and startups who come to them with innovative demos, products, and solutions,” he said.

Many enterprise buyers, Kaimal added, are now setting aside 20–30% of their technology budgets to work with startups on AI-driven projects. “Whoever does a better job and is able to use AI more effectively to move key performance indicators — to shift the metrics that matter — will be the ones to capture this opportunity,” he noted.

While Bessemer expects large IT firms to continue investing in AI capabilities, Kaimal said nimble startups are better positioned to build the next generation of AI service platforms. “This requires a lot of IP creation, a different kind of engineering talent, deep AI expertise, and the ability to iterate quickly. From our experience, nimble founders and startups are best positioned to do this,” he said.

Kaimal also pointed out that consolidation through mergers and acquisitions may not be a silver bullet for incumbents. “Just acquiring a startup is only 10% of the answer. The remaining 90% is about maintaining the startup’s ethos — its nimbleness, agility, customer centricity, and R&D orientation,” he said, adding that the next billion-dollar IT giants could well emerge from today’s AI-first startups.

Bessemer’s report highlights that as AI tools improve and global clients demand faster and cheaper solutions, India’s IT and software companies stand to gain significantly. The firm’s projections signal a period of transformation where both established players and new-age startups could redefine the contours of the country’s technology services industry.

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