IOVA Stock Slump Takes Wall Street, Retail By Surprise — Here’s Why

• Jefferies had predicted that IOVA could see a 5%-15% move on Replime’s drug getting rejected. 
• According to Chardan analyst Geulah Livshits, RP1’s rejection is a positive for Iovance's Amtagvi's near-term competitive position.
• Iovance story "remains centered on" Amtagvi's sales acceleration and margin expansion in 2026, according to Jefferies.

Shares of Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc. (IOVA) garnered retail attention on Friday in light of an aspiring rival’s drug failing to get the nod from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

IOVA shares closed down 8% on Friday, surprising retail investors and analysts alike. Jefferies had predicted that IOVA could see a 5%-15% move on Replimune’s drug getting rejected.

Earlier on Friday, the FDA refused to approve Replimune’s (REPL) investigational melanoma drug RP1. The agency said in a letter to the company that the data submitted by Replimune as part of its application seeking approval of the drug is “insufficient to conclude substantial evidence of effectiveness” in the treatment of unresectable advanced cutaneous melanoma.

Iovance’s Amtagvi cellular therapy is already approved as a treatment for people with previously treated melanoma that has spread or cannot be removed by surgery. The drug was granted accelerated approval in February 2024. The company recorded Amtagvi revenue of about $220 million for the full year 2025 in the U.S.

How Did Retail Traders React?

A Stocktwits user expressed surprise at the stock closing down on the good news.

Yet another echoed the sentiment.

Another user opined that the stock may be down over concerns about FDA raising the bar for trials.

Yet another user sounded optimism for clarity on sentiment around the stock on Monday.  “Good news after good news lately, don’t let the price action tell you otherwise,” they said.

Overall retail sentiment around IOVA jumped from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume increased from ‘normal’ to ‘high’ levels. Retail chatter around IOVA rose 75%, according to platform data.

Analyst Take

According to data from Koyfin, eight of the 11 analysts covering IOVA rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, while three rate it ‘Hold’. There are no ‘Sell’ ratings of the stock.

The average 12-month price target on the stock is $9, representing a potential upside of about 144%.

According to Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai, the rejection for RP1 means one less competitor for Iovance in the near term though Replimune was “technically not an overhang.” Iovance story "remains centered on" Amtagvi's sales acceleration and margin expansion in 2026, he said. The analyst has a ‘Buy’ rating and $12 price target on the shares.

Chardan analyst Geulah Livshits also kept  a ‘Buy’ rating on Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) with a $16 price target after Replimune (REPL) update. RP1’s rejection is a positive for Iovance's Amtagvi's near-term competitive position, the analyst told investors in a research note. However, the firm added that more direct competition from cell therapies "could be on the horizon" in 2027.

IOVA stock has gained 21% over the past 12 months. 

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