KEEL Stock Heads For Third Week Of Declines: Analyst Flags Concentration Risk

• The research firm said that Keel’s three Pennsylvania campuses account for 860 MW of the 974 gross MW in the 2030 base case.
• Northwise Project noted that a permitting delay at one property might stay local, but a weaker financing market “can make several projects harder to fund at once.”
• Keel Infrastructure’s three priority sites: Moses Lake, Sharon and Panther Creek, are on track for power delivery in 2027. 

Shares of Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) were sliding in the overnight session late on Wednesday, on track to end a third week in the red. 

Research firm Northwise Project flagged concentration risk for the company in a post on X, noting that a majority of its energy supply comes from three campuses in Pennsylvania. 

KEEL’s Concentration Risk

Northwise Project said that the firm has accounted for five energy development sites for Keel Infrastructure in its latest model in September, “but three Pennsylvania campuses account for 860 of the 974 gross MW in the 2030 Base case.”

This accounts for about 88.3% of the company’s energy supply forecast.

The firm said that while the sites have different power arrangements and development schedules, “They still share exposure to regional infrastructure, construction resources and the parent's ability to raise capital.”

Northwise Project noted that a permitting delay at one property might stay local, but a weaker financing market “can make several projects harder to fund at once.”

The firm said that it would not treat the five locations as “five independent chances of success,” given that most of the modeled capacity depends on the same region and balance sheet.

Keel Infrastructure’s Power Sites 

Keel Infrastructure’s three priority sites: Moses Lake, Sharon, and Panther Creek, are on track for power delivery in 2027. 

Moses Lake in Washington has 18 MW and is expected to be Keel’s first fully commissioned and energized data center in 2027. Sharon in Pennsylvania is being evaluated for a 110-MW phase and has uncontracted 2027 PJM power. Panther Creek has 350 MW of secured utility capacity, with potential expansion to 500 MW or more. 

In the latest earnings call in August, CEO Ben Gagnon said, “near-term power is scarce and our sites have it,” adding that all three sites have multiple prospective customers negotiating simultaneously.  

Keel is also pursuing expansion capacity in Pennsylvania. The company’s management said it is working with utilities on applications covering “almost 2 gigawatts across the state” and is “increasingly confident” it can secure additional power, with an update expected as early as December or January. 

At Scrubgrass, a 1 GW-plus Western Pennsylvania campus, Keel is pursuing a 750-MW utility load study alongside plans for 550 MW of on-site CCGT generation. The site remains in the energy-application stage, with data-center construction planning and permitting dependent on securing the power.    

KEEL Stock: Retail Stance

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around KEEL stock was ‘bearish’ at the time of writing, with message volume up 20% over 24 hours, as per platform data. 

One user said, “$KEEL we need a deal.”

Another user said, “$KEEL this stock will never be green.”

However, another user said, “$KEEL sector is down, will bounce from here.”

Despite the recent pullback, KEEL stock is up 28% year-to-date. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.