TSLA Stock Heads For Weekly Win: Dan Ives Sees Over 30% Upside From AI, UBS Calls Setup ‘Tactically Favorable’

• Dan Ives initiated coverage with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a $500 target, implying about 32% upside.
• UBS raised its target to $391, maintained a ‘Buy’ rating and called Tesla’s risk/reward “tactically favorable.”
• Elon Musk reaffirmed that his companies would build and operate Terafab, limiting TSMC’s potential role to subleasing space.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) are on course for a weekly gain as Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage with a $500 price target, betting on growth from AI and robotics, while UBS called the stock’s risk/reward “tactically favorable.”

TSLA shares fell 0.8% on Wednesday to $377.81 but remained up about 2% for the week.

Analysts Back Tesla’s Growth Beyond EVs

Ives initiated coverage with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a $500 target, implying about 32% upside from Wednesday’s close.

“While automotive remains the company’s foundation, we believe the next phase of the Tesla story will be defined by monetizing software, autonomy, and physical AI across an installed base few global technology companies can replicate,” he wrote.

He sees Full Self-Driving supporting recurring software revenue and a scaled robotaxi network, Cybercab improving driverless economics, and Optimus expanding Tesla into industrial automation. Megapack and Powerwall provide another growth opportunity as electricity demand and AI data-center construction rise.

“In our view, investors valuing Tesla primarily as an automaker risk overlooking the broader strategic picture: the company is assembling a portfolio of AI-enabled physical platforms that could reshape transportation, energy, and labor while creating multiple paths to sustained growth and long-term margin expansion,” Ives said.

Meanwhile, UBS raised his Tesla price target to $391 from $385, implying a 4% upside from current levels, and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating. The firm said Tesla remains more sentiment-driven than results-driven, but called the risk/reward at current levels “tactically favorable.”

Musk Rules Out TSMC Running Terafab

The analyst calls came as Elon Musk reaffirmed that his companies would build and operate Terafab, the planned Tesla-SpaceX AI chip complex in Texas. “No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that,” Musk said on X, rejecting a suggestion that TSMC would own and operate the facility. “Maybe TSMC subleases part of the Terafab if they want, but nothing more than that.” 

The comments followed his acknowledgment last week of cooperation talks with TSMC. Separately, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said that the chipmaker would remain involved in the project.

Tesla’s European FSD Campaign Draws Scrutiny

Separately, Tesla’s autonomy ambitions are facing regulatory and safety questions in Europe. Tesla reportedly pressed European regulators to accelerate FSD approval through direct lobbying and a social-media campaign touting its safety benefits.

The Netherlands and seven other EU countries have granted national approvals, with an EU-wide vote expected. FSD remains a driver-assistance system requiring human supervision. Seven traffic-safety researchers supposedly found that Tesla’s studies did not substantiate claims that FSD prevents fatal crashes. However, Dutch regulator RDW defended its review as objective and independent.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA slipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ levels a day ago amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One user said, “$TSLA is pinned in positive gamma at $375 with dealers defending mean reversion. The $375 put wall provides support below spot while the call wall at $375 offers no overhead resistance since price has already cleared it upside gamma at $380 and $385 will resist rallies above there.”

Another user said, “$TSLA October determines the quarter and this quarter determines the next quarter. Watch the flop. Not a coincidence many are calling for $200S. Couldn’t be any other way before the move that is about to unfold”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down 16%. 

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