Where Are Mahanagar Gas Shares Headed? SEBI RA Harika Enjamuri Spots Technical Hurdles At These Levels

Shares of Mahanagar Gas (MGL) must decisively break above the ₹1,420 resistance level to confirm a bullish trend, according to SEBI-registered analyst Harika Enjamuri, who warned that failure to do so could pull the stock back toward the ₹1,280–₹1,198 zone. 

The technical view comes after the city gas distributor posted mixed fourth-quarter (Q4)results for FY25, with margins remaining under pressure despite solid revenue growth.

Motilal Oswal said MGL's adjusted EBITDA margin missed estimates at ₹8.35 per standard cubic metre (scm), compared with its ₹10/scm projection. 

The shortfall was due to higher gas costs and operating expenses, despite a reversal of ₹633.5 million in provisions that temporarily lifted realisations by ₹3/scm.

Revenue for Q4FY25 rose 18% year-on-year to ₹1,865 crore, while net profit declined 5% to ₹252 crore. 

Operating profit improved sequentially to ₹378 crore from ₹314 crore in Q3, though still lagged behind ₹394 crore a year earlier. 

Margins recovered slightly to 20% from 18% in Q3, but remained below the 25% margin posted in Q4FY24.

On the technical front, Enjamuri noted that the stock faced rejection near ₹1,420 and settled 1.97% lower at ₹1,376.90, hovering near its 9-day exponential moving average of ₹1,341.62. 

The RSI at 56.41 shows mild bullish strength, but unless the breakout is confirmed above ₹1,420 with volume, downside risks remain, she said.

Motilal Oswal flagged further challenges ahead, noting that domestic gas allocations were reduced by about 18% effective April 16, which lowers the share of cheaper gas in MGL’s compressed natural gas (CNG) mix from 51% to 41%. 

The brokerage maintained a ‘Buy’ rating, citing improving realizations and recent price hikes, but cautioned that margins remain under pressure.

For the full year, MGL’s revenue rose to ₹6,924 crore from ₹6,245 crore, while net profit fell to ₹1,045 crore from ₹1,289 crore. 

Operating margins narrowed to 22% from 30%, as expenses surged 23% year-on-year.

MGL has declared a final dividend of ₹18 per share, bringing the total payout for FY25 to ₹30 per share.

On Stocktwits, sentiment was ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

MGL shares are up 10.1% so far in 2025.