Morgan Stanley Reportedly Expects 4 Rate Cuts Through January, Says Fed Will Aim To Arrive At Neutral Rates ‘More Decisively’

Morgan Stanley reportedly expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times in its upcoming meetings between September and January amid slowing inflation and a weakening labor market.

According to a Bloomberg report, Morgan Stanley believes the Fed aims to arrive at neutral policy rates “more decisively” before it pauses to assess the impact of its rate cuts.

“Softer inflation and weakening labor market conditions give the Fed room to move more quickly toward a neutral policy stance,” the firm’s economists said in a note, according to the report.

“Once that noise clears, we anticipate further cuts in April and July as labor market deterioration continues,” the economists stated in the note, according to the report, while arguing against a 50-basis-point cut in the upcoming September meeting.

This comes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported that weekly jobless claims for the week ended September 5 rose by 27,000 to 263,000, higher than an estimated 235,000.

Data from CME Group’s Fedwatch tool indicates a 90.8% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the current 4.25% to 4.5% range.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities edged up in Friday’s opening trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up 0.04%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rose 0.19%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory.

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was down 0.25% at the time of writing.

Also See: Carlyle’s David Rubenstein Reportedly Says A 50 BPS Cut Next Week From Fed Would Scare The Markets: Here's Why

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