NFLX Stock Flat Overnight: Netflix's ‘Largest Content Deal’ With Brazil Media Giant Globo Fails To Sway Retail Ahead Of Earnings

• Netflix’s deal with Globo will bring 18 shows and films to the platform through mid-2027.
• The deal aims to attract viewers in Brazil and other markets amid weak subscriber growth.
• Analysts cut Netflix’s price targets but maintained positive ratings, citing long-term growth potential. 

Netflix (NFLX) stock slipped overnight despite signing its largest-ever content deal with Brazil’s Globo, as investors remained concerned about subscriber retention and bearish retail sentiment ahead of Tuesday’s third-quarter (Q3) earnings report. 

Netflix stock was 0.07% lower overnight Monday, after a nearly 1% drop in regular trading. 

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What’s In The Netflix-Globo Deal

The deal, announced Monday, is the biggest ever signed between the two companies. From Dec.18, Globo originals will roll out on Netflix through mid-2027, dubbed and subtitled in multiple languages. The package covers 14 films, three telenovelas and one series. 

The centerpiece is Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here,” the 2025 Academy Award winner for Best International Feature, licensed only for Brazil. “Vitória,” starring Oscar nominee Fernanda Montenegro, has been licensed worldwide. “India – A Love Story,” the 2009 International Emmy winner for Best Telenovela, is licensed for the U.S. and Latin America, excluding Brazil. All seven seasons of the comedy “Vai Que Cola” are exclusive to Brazil.

According to a Variety report, Brazil has more Netflix subscribers than any country outside the U.S., and Latin American subscriptions are expected to reach 63.8 million in 2026 and 73.7 million by 2031. 

Analysts Cautious On Netflix Ahead Of Earnings

However, analysts are cautious, though not outright negative. Seaport Research’s David Joyce cut his price target to $90 from $102 but kept a ‘Buy’ rating. He believes shares are oversold on long-term growth but said Netflix is in a “show-me” period. 

Also, last week, Wedbush lowered its price target on NFLX to $90 from $105 but maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating, saying the leadership change and more focused content spending could help improve user engagement. Netflix named former Disney executive Peter Rice as its new content chief, replacing Bela Bajaria.

The streaming giant plans to lay off about 5% of its global workforce, or roughly 800 employees, amid slower growth and lower viewer engagement. Netflix shares have fallen about 42% since its attempted deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, which ultimately went to Skydance (SKYD). 

Investors will watch its Q3 earnings on Tuesday for updates on its performance and growth plans. According to Fiscal.ai data, analysts see $12.86 billion in revenue with earnings of $0.83 per share.

What Are NFLX Retail Traders Saying 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock remained in ‘bearish’ territory. Message volume rose 600% over the past 24 hours. 

A user argued that without a deep library of its own, Netflix will struggle to hold “fickle” subscribers, and suggested it should buy Lionsgate. 

Another user expressed pessimism, saying, “same pre-earnings vibes as $NKE and $TTD That means 60 then.”

A third user said, “I’m a bull here but sold covered calls knowing this will get absolutely wrecked on earnings.”

NFLX stock has cratered 25% year-to-date. 

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