Nifty At Inflection Point: SEBI RAs Watch 24,900–25,000 For Reversal Or Breakdown

The Nifty index closed below 25,000, following a steady decline on Friday, closing below the 50-day simple moving average (25,035) for the first time in over two months.  

Over the weekend, index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries (RIL), ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Axis Bank, which make up nearly 30% of the Nifty's weightage, have declared their first-quarter (Q1 FY26) earnings and are expected to impact the market direction on Monday. 

Trade Setup For Monday

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services highlighted that the results appeared to be moderate to weak, especially in the banking sector. From a positional perspective, he believes that the index will attempt to reclaim 25,000, having shown signs of support at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) or within the 24,920-24,930 range. If the Nifty does that, then it will attempt to retest the 20-day EMA at 25,200. But this level could introduce new resistance. A convincing break above this level would increase the probability of further gains, he added. 

On the other hand, if the Nifty index fails to reclaim 25,000 or breaks below the 50 DEMA and the 24,920 mark, the next significant support lies at the 24,800-24,750 (midpoint of the last consolidation range). Any failure to hold this level of close below this would indicate that the index will again retest the 100 DEMA support or lower levels of the consolidation range at 24,500, intensifying the bearish sentiment. 

For intraday trading on Monday, Sharma pegged immediate support at the 50 DEMA or 24,920-24,900, with the following support levels at 24,850, 24,800, 24,780, and 24,730, paying particular attention to market behavior around 24,800. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 25,000, with subsequent resistance levels at 25,060, 25,100, 25,150, 25,200, and higher.

Analyst Dipak Takodara noted that rather than a clean breakdown, the Nifty index has now entered a key support zone between 24,900 and 25,000, which includes both psychological and technical significance, and that bulls may attempt to defend this area. 

He added that the index’s recent swing move from its June low to July high was now undergoing a deeper retracement. The Nifty has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is placed at approximately 24,923 – a level that often acts as a critical turning point in corrective phases. Additionally, the rising volumes on red candles confirm bearish intent, though the presence of support nearby may lead to a pause or bounce.  

Takodara observed that while the momentum has shifted to negative in the short term, a stabilisation here could set the stage for a near-term technical rebound if supported by volume and follow-through buying early next week. 

He identified an immediate support zone at 24,900–25,000, including the 61.8% retracement (24,923) and the now-breached 50-DMA (25,035). A clean breakdown below 24,900, accompanied by volume, could open the downside toward 24,724 (78.6% retracement) and 24,473 (100% retracement). On the upside, the index needs to reclaim 25,035–25,064 quickly to halt the bearish momentum. Beyond that, 25,205 and 25,325 (20-DMA) are the following resistance levels. 

Takodara concluded that the short-term bias is bearish but approaching a potential inflection point, while the medium-term view remains constructive above 24,500.

Analyst Sunil Kotak highlighted that Nifty was in a sideways zone on its weekly chart. He identified 24,900-24,950 as the support, and remains bearish if the index breaks below this level. On the upside, resistance is seen at 25,200-25,250, and if the index breaks above this level, the bias turns bullish for the Nifty index.

Analyst Pradeep Carpenter observed that the Nifty has immediate support near 24,920, with a key resistance zone at 25,250–25,400. A strong close above this level, especially led by Reliance and select large-caps, can trigger a fresh up-leg, according to him.

For the Bank Nifty, 55,000 remains the critical support zone, while a breakout above 56,300 could open the door to new highs. ICICI Bank’s strength may offset HDFC Bank’s drag, but broader follow-through from Axis, Kotak, or even PSU banks will be needed, he added.

Carpenter noted that the market heads into the week with a mixed but interesting setup. Domestic earnings momentum remains healthy, led by ICICI Bank and Reliance. Global macro conditions, however, warrant caution. He advised traders to approach the week with a stock-specific mindset, avoiding broad index longs unless there is clarity on global flows and the Dollar Index stabilizes. He believes that Monday’s price action will reveal whether earnings-led resilience can overcome macro-led resistance.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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