Nifty Faces Resistance At 24,900–25,000; SEBI RAs Caution Traders Ahead Of Expiry Week

Indian equity markets ended lower for the fourth consecutive week, with the Nifty index ending below 24,900. 

For Monday, SEBI-registered analyst Pradeep Carpenter has identified resistance at 24,884, followed by 25,000 and 25,088. He sees support at 24,758, 24,680, and 24,554. Bias remains bearish below 24,900. Overall, he expects the Nifty to trade sideways between 24,750 and 24,900. 

For the Bank Nifty, he identified resistance at 56,620, 57,000, and 57,304. On the downside, support is seen at 56,254, 55,981, and 55,523. Bias remains bearish below 56,620. He advised traders to watch for a support test near 56,254. 

 Strategy Setups For Jul 29

Carpenter shared three trade setups for Monday. First is the Bear Call Spread, which is recommended when the price opens near resistance levels. For Nifty, this involves selling the 24,900 Call option and buying the 25,100 Call option. For the BankNifty, the strategy involves selling the 57,000 Call option and buying the 57,300 Call option. 

The second one is Put Debit Spread, which is used when support levels break. The suggested trades include buying the 24,800 Put option and selling the 24,600 Put option for the Nifty, and buying the 56,500 Put option and selling the 56,200 Put option for the Bank Nifty. 

Lastly, the Iron Condor strategy is recommended for a range-bound market. For Nifty, the range involves the 24,750 Put option to the 24,950 Call option, and for BankNifty, the 56,300 Put option to the 56,800 Call option. 

Carpenter noted that the price action was rejected at higher levels, while the option chain confirms dominant call writing. However, the absence of a sharp rise in volatility signals no panic yet, just controlled bearishness. He expects the next few sessions to depend heavily on global cues and FII flows. Any bounce is likely to face resistance near 24,900–25,000 on the Nifty and 57,000 on the Bank Nifty.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that recent price actions shows Nifty respected the 24,800 support on Friday. The market closed significantly below the 50-day exponential moving average (DEMA) at around 24,950. The daily time frame also shows that the previous trough was broken, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.

Two scenarios emerge now, according to Sharma. First, unless the market finds significant support soon, there is a high probability of a further downward wave continuation. Second, if the market does manage to take support near 24,800-25,760 or around 24,500, we could see a pullback. More importantly, the intensity of the pullback will depend on how the market reacts on the upside.

A positional scenario indicates that if the Nifty index slips below 24,800, it could test 24,500 (approximately the 100-day EMA). On the other hand, if it reclaimed the 50-day EMA and rises above 25,000, it would open the path to 25,200-25,400, and higher. 

For intraday trade, Sharma identified immediate support at 24,800. Below this, the supports to watch are 24,760, 24,720, 24,650, 24,580, and 24,500. In the first round, he expects the corrective wave to extend till 24,500. However, a pullback between 24,800 and 24,500 is likely, as markets rarely move in a single direction without a retracement. 

On the upside, he identified immediate resistance at 24,880, followed by levels of 24,920, 24,930, and 24,950. He sees the main hurdle above 24,950 and higher as it tries to reclaim 25,000 (which could act as strong resistance).

Sharma advised caution with the monthly expiries this week. However, the midterm trend remains intact, and there is potential for the market to bounce back from its current lateral support levels.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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