Nifty Outlook: SEBI Analysts Flag 24,600 As Crucial Support Ahead Of September Expiry

Indian equity markets extended their losing streak for the seventh straight session, highlighting persistent selling pressure ahead of the monthly F&O expiry on Tuesday. The Nifty index once again failed to sustain above the 24,800 mark, where sharp selling emerged, but managed to hold the 24,600 level on a closing basis. 

As we head into the September series expiry session, will the selling pressure persist? SEBI-registered analysts shared their Nifty outlook on Stocktwits. 

Trade Setup For September 30

Analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted the formation of a bearish candle with an upper shadow, signaling strong resistance at higher levels for the Nifty, which continues to trade in a lower-high, lower-low structure, confirming short-term bearish momentum. 

He sees the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 24,750 and Monday’s high at 24,800 as the immediate resistance zone. On the downside, 24,600 is seen as an immediate support, and a decisive breach of this level could drag the index toward the 24,400–24,350 zone, which coincides with the crucial 200-day EMA support. 

Key Levels to Watch 

• Support: 24,600 – 24,400 – 24,350 

• Resistance: 24,750 – 24,800 – 25,000 

The Relative Strength Index dropped to 38.79, reflecting weakening momentum and limited strength from the bulls. Unless the index decisively reclaims 25,000, the overall setup favors a sell-on-rise strategy, Chandel added. Derivatives data suggest a trading range of 24,500–25,000 in the near term. 

Chandel concluded that the market sentiment remains cautious, with foreign investors selling since September 22. For the index to regain momentum, a close above 25,000 is crucial. Till then, he advised traders to adopt a defensive approach, using pullbacks towards higher levels as opportunities to create fresh short positions.

Expiry Session: 200-day EMA Support Holds Key

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services flagged that the Nifty is still holding above the 200-day EMA, around 24,600. As we head into the monthly expiry session on Tuesday, the positional outlook remains unchanged. 

Sharma believes that if the Nifty drops below the 200-day EMA, it could potentially retrace 100% of the current trend, moving down to 24,400 or even to the previous trough near 24,350. On the other hand, a technical bounce from this level might push the Nifty towards the 24,800–25,000 range. And sustaining above 25,000 would suggest a strong bounce.

For intraday trade, he added that the chart formation remains bearish, with dependence on the 200-day EMA support for any pullback. Immediate support is seen at 24,630–24,600, followed by 24,500–24,400. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 24,730–24,750.

Markets: Where From Here? 

Ashish Kyal added that the market consolidated in a range with minor arresting behaviour at lower levels. A break above 24,800 is required for stability, and if the index falls below 24,580, he expects selling pressure to resume.

Dipak Takodara highlighted that the Nifty index is sitting just above triangle support with strong selling volume and weak RSI. His bias stays cautious to negative. 

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