NIO Vs. LI Vs. XPEV: Which Stock Does Wall Street See Most Upside For?

• The ES9 is expected to build on Nio’s success with the ES8 launched in 2025. 
• Over the weekend, Nio CEO Willian Li also reportedly expressed confidence that Nio will achieve its annual sales growth target of 40% to 50%.
• However, analysts on average see the most upside for Nio’s peer XPeng among the three U.S.-listed Chinese EV startups, including Li Auto.

Shares of Chinese EV maker Nio Inc. (NIO) closed 7% higher on Thursday, while U.S.-listed shares of its peers Xpeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) made relatively smaller gains, on the back of investor optimism stoked by the company’s recent ES9 vehicle unveil.

Nio unveiled its next-generation sports utility vehicle (SUV), the ES9, in China last week as it looks to build on the success of the ES8.

Priced from 528,000 yuan ($77,230) with the battery included, the new flagship SUV is set for official launch in late May, with first customer deliveries scheduled to begin on June 1. The company has positioned it as its most important product of the year, with company CEO William Li terming it the “most premium and advanced product” of its lineup last month.

Over the weekend, Nio CEO Willian Li also reportedly expressed confidence that Nio will achieve its annual sales growth target of 40% to 50%. Li was speaking at the sidelines of the China EV 100 forum over the weekend.

Li said Nio is now in its third phase of development, wherein its delivery volume growth rate should rise gradually. He stated that during Nio’s first phase of development, delivery volumes rose consistently at an annual growth rate of nearly 100%, while the second phase saw a growth of 30% to 45%.

NIO Vs. XPEV Vs. LI: Wall Street Weighs In

According to data from Koyfin, 16 of the 25 analysts covering Nio rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, while seven rate it ‘Hold,’ and two rate it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

The 12-month average price target on the stock is $6.65, representing a potential downside of about 4% from last close.

In comparison, 20 of the 27 analysts covering XPEV rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, while six hate it ‘Hold’ and only one rates it a ‘Strong Sell.’ The 12-month average price target on the stock is $24.76, representing a potential upside of 36% from last close.

Meanwhile, analysts on average have a price target of $21.19 on LI, representing a potential upside of 14%. Of the 27 analysts covering LI, 11 rate it ‘Buy’ or higher while 12 rate it ‘Hold’ and four rate it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

How Did Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around NIO stock jumped from ‘neutral’ to ‘bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume fell from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ levels.

Sentiment around XPEV and LI stocks stayed in the ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing.

A Stocktwits user expressed optimism for NIO stock breaching the $7 threshold.

Another said that Nio shares should be trading higher than XPEV’s.

While NIO stock has nearly doubled its value over the past 12 months, LI and XPEV stocks have fallen 18% and 2%, respectively. 

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