NRF Projects US Holiday Sales To Reach $1 Trillion This Year

• NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said he remains bullish about the holiday shopping season and expects consumers to continue seeking savings in nonessential categories to spend on gifts for loved ones.
• The federation stated that it anticipates retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market.
• According to NRF, the delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Thursday that it forecasts U.S. annual holiday sales this year, in November and December, will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.

NRF said that this would equate to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. Last year, holiday sales rose 4.3% to $976.1 billion compared to 2023.

U.S. consumers have witnessed several price hikes on products across retailers, including Walmart, as President Donald Trump’s on-and-off tariffs on global trading partners went into effect, increasing production costs for retailers.

NRF Executives View

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay stated that American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity.

Shay noted that NRF remains bullish about the holiday shopping season and expects consumers to continue seeking savings in nonessential categories to spend on gifts for loved ones.

“The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said.

Retail Hiring

NRF said that it expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market. There were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024, according to NRF.

Mathews added that while seasonal hiring typically supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October.

In the last few years, retailers from Amazon to Walmart have begun offering deals in October, well ahead of the holiday season, which typically starts in November every year.

Due to the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will closely monitor spending patterns and wait to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season, Mathews said.

NRF noted that one of the major challenges this year is the federal government shutdown, which has entered its 37th day. The retail federation added that the timing of the shutdown has been a headwind just before the holiday season.

According to NRF, the delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities fell in Thursday’s afternoon trading. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was down 1.13%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 1.87%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) fell 0.96%.

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