NVO Stock Drops 6% Despite Raised Guidance As Investors Worry About Injectable GLP-1 Sales Future

• In the second quarter, NVO's adjusted net sales rose 7%, ignoring currency swings, to DKK 78.5 billion.
• The oral Wegovy pill contributed DKK 3.2 billion, with U.S. weekly prescriptions topping 265,000.
• Investors are still focused on the risk of slower growth in the injectable versions of Novo’s drugs in the U.S.

NVO stock fell more than 6% on Tuesday after Novo Nordisk reported second-quarter results and raised full-year guidance — yet still disappointed investors concerned about slowing U.S. growth for its key weight-loss and diabetes drugs.

Novo now expects underlying sales to grow between 0% and –6% for the year, and the same range for underlying operating profit. That is better than the previous outlook of –4% to –12%. The upgrade came from stronger expected sales of its GLP-1 drugs — the class of medicines that help control blood sugar and reduce appetite.

Solid Quarter But Investor Concerns Linger

In the second quarter, Novo's adjusted net sales rose 7%, ignoring currency swings, to DKK 78.5 billion. Underlying operating profit climbed 11% to DKK 33.4 billion.

Reported numbers looked weaker because of one-off accounting adjustments and DKK 6.3 billion in non-cash write-downs on some experimental drugs in development, including DKK 4.0 billion tied to a drug called monlunabant, the drugmaker said.

Injectable Wegovy sales reached DKK 19.5 billion, held back by a 22% U.S. drop from lower prices despite higher volumes, though international sales jumped 46%. Ozempic sales were DKK 31.4 billion. The oral Wegovy pill contributed DKK 3.2 billion, with U.S. weekly prescriptions topping 265,000.

Investor Concerns

Investors are still focused on the risk of slower growth in the injectable versions of Novo’s drugs in the U.S., partly due to competition, changes in insurance coverage, and lower prices under a recent government pricing deal.

Several forces are driving lower prices and slower growth: competition from Eli Lilly’s rival weight-loss and diabetes drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, which have taken meaningful market share; changes in insurance coverage, including reduced Medicaid coverage for anti-obesity medicines in several states; a shift toward lower-priced cash-pay channels, where patients pay out of pocket at discounted rates; and a U.S. government pricing agreement that expands access through Medicare and Medicaid but forces significantly lower net prices.

Looking further ahead, Novo announced earlier this year a major U.S. list-price cut that will take effect on 1 January 2027. The company will lower the wholesale acquisition cost of all doses of injectable Wegovy, the Wegovy pill, injectable Ozempic, and the Ozempic pill to a flat $675. That represents roughly a 50% reduction for Wegovy and a 35% reduction for Ozempic. Novo had then said the change would begin to affect cash flow starting in 2027.

NVO’s Near-Term Catalysts

The earnings release comes on the heels of the company’s late-stage trial of ziltivekimab in cardiovascular disease failing to meet its primary endpoint, news that triggered around 9% share drop in late July. The company will take a related non-cash impairment charge in the third quarter.  

Looking ahead, Novo Nordisk continues to advance its obesity and diabetes pipeline. Key catalysts include the potential U.S. regulatory decision on CagriSema, a once-weekly combination of two weight-loss ingredients; progress on zenagamtide, also called amycretin — a dual-action drug being tested in both injectable and pill forms; higher-dose versions of existing products; and further launches of Wegovy in more countries.

How Did NVO Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around NVO stock jumped from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels.

A Stocktwits user opined that the selloff on Tuesday is a good opportunity to buy more.

Another slammed the selloff as an "absurd" reaction to good earnings.

NVO stock has fallen 13% year-to-date. 

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