Oil Prices Pull Back After OPEC+ Supply Boost Shocks Markets, Focus Shifts To Trade Deals

Oil prices receded in early trading on Monday after the OPEC+ producer group agreed to a bigger-than-expected supply boost late last week amid concerns over demand.

On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies said they would increase August production by 548,000 barrels per day compared to July levels, a significantly higher figure than the 411,000 bpd supply hike the group had previously opted for in May, June, and July.

Benchmark Brent crude prices fell 1% to $67.63 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices fell by similar levels to $65.83 per barrel at 2.28 am GMT. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about the United States Oil Fund (USO) was in the ‘bearish’ territory.

“For now, the oil market remains tight, suggesting it can absorb additional barrels,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said before pointing out that rising risks from trade tensions could limit the upside to demand over the next 6-12 months.

OPEC+ cited “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as the reason behind the rapid lift in output. Low fuel inventories in North America have buoyed the decision-makers amid the summer driving season when demand remains elevated in the Northern Hemisphere.

Saudi Arabia, the top producer among OPEC+ countries, has reportedly raised the prices of its benchmark crude oil for Asian buyers, a move that shows the country’s confidence in oil demand. OPEC+ is scheduled to reveal its September production levels on Aug. 3.

Separately, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that reciprocal tariffs on goods from other countries will take effect on Aug. 1, further increasing uncertainty about trade policy.  

According to a Reuters report, Goldman Sachs predicted another 550,000 bpd supply increase from the producer group in September. The brokerage also reiterated that Brent prices will average $59 per barrel.

The United States Oil Fund has fallen 2.3% this year, compared with nearly 7% gains in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

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