Oil Prices Volatile As Iran Vote Raises Strait Closure Risks; SEBI RAs Flag Market Impact

Ongoing unrest in the Middle East triggered sharp oil price swings on Monday, after Iran’s parliament approved a bill to close the Strait of Hormuz. 

The waterway handles 20% of the world’s oil and LNG trade, and any disruption would have major implications for global supply chains.

Brent crude rose 72 cents to $77.73 a barrel and WTI gained 71 cents to $74.55 by 0806 GMT. 

Both benchmarks had surged over 3% earlier, hitting five-month highs of $81.40 and $78.40, before paring gains.

SEBI-registered analysts have flagged heightened volatility after the approval of the bill. 

Front Wave Research said odds of a full closure, as reflected on prediction platform Polymarket, had declined to around 50% from a peak of 77% last week, signaling a moderation in sentiment but continued concern.

Meanwhile, Ketan Mittal said Brent crude holding below the $80 mark despite geopolitical uncertainty was a positive signal for Indian equities, but noted that oil prices would remain a key driver of market direction in the near term.

Suryansh Singh Chandel said India’s reliance on Gulf oil—about 40% of total crude imports—made the country vulnerable to price shocks. 

He added that while alternative sources were available, they would likely be more expensive. 

The analyst described the current environment as conducive to short-term trading opportunities amid expected volatility.

Vikash Bagaria said the potential closure of the Strait could lead to one of the biggest oil shocks of 2025, with 20% of global oil and 25% of LNG exports at risk. 

He flagged the possibility of a sharp breakout in crude and natural gas futures, noting that natural gas prices could spike by as much as 20–35% if the situation escalates.

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